"Cedi Projected to End 2025 at GHS 11.45 to the Dollar\u00a0"

Cedi Projected to End 2025 at GHS 11.45 to the Dollar 

The Ghana cedi is projected to end the year at GHS 11.45 to the US dollar on the interbank market, according to forecasts by IC Research.

In its latest currency outlook, IC Research stated that it expects improved price discovery in the foreign exchange (FX) market in the coming months as exchange rates on the interbank and retail markets gradually converge.

“While we continue to expect the interbank US dollar-Ghana cedi rate to close full year 2025 below our estimated fair value, we reiterate the possibility for the interbank levels to steadily rise towards our revised FY2025 midpoint forecast of GHS 10.95/USD, with the forecast ceiling at GHS 11.45/USD,” the firm stated.

Currently, the local currency is trading at GHS 10.40 to the dollar on the interbank market, while retail market quotes remain significantly higher, above GHS 12 to the dollar.

IMF Concerns Over BoG FX Interventions

IC Research further noted that while the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has commended the Bank of Ghana (BoG) for measures aimed at stabilising inflation and the cedi, the Fund expressed reservations about the scale of the central bank’s continued interventions in the forex market.

“Our estimate showed year-to-date FX sales of $4.6 billion on the interbank market by the BoG as of 7 July 2025, while concurrently accumulating FX reserves, through a strategic tweak to the domestic gold purchase programme,” the report said.

It added that these interventions have contributed to a growing disparity between the interbank rate and retail FX market prices, with the latter nearing IC Research’s estimated fair value of GHS 12.20/USD.

FX Delivery Tenor Adjustment

As part of efforts to reduce its market footprint and increase exchange rate flexibility, the Bank of Ghana has extended the delivery period for foreign exchange transactions from 2-day forwards to 7-day forwards, a move IC Research believes is aligned with the IMF’s recommendations.

“In view of this recommendation, we think the BoG’s decision to lengthen the FX delivery tenor from 2-day Forwards to 7-day Forwards since 11 June 2025 was to partly align with the Fund’s proposal,” the firm concluded.

The outlook suggests the cedi will remain under moderate pressure through the rest of the year, though interventions and FX reforms could help mitigate excessive volatility.