Debt Sustainability Gains to Improve Ghana’s Credit Ratings, Boost Investor Confidence – Deloitte
Deloitte Ghana, in its 2025 Budget Analysis Report, has highlighted that improvements in Ghana’s debt sustainability are likely to enhance the country’s credit ratings and bolster investor confidence in the economy.
The firm noted that Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio has declined from 78.5% in December 2021 to 61.8% in December 2024, reflecting significant progress in debt sustainability. This trend is expected to move the country closer to its medium-term target of 55% by 2028, as agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
Debt Market Reforms to Ease Fiscal Pressures
Government measures to extend bond maturities and improve secondary market activity are expected to ease refinancing risks, while the leveraging of the sinking fund should help bolster debt repayment capacity. However, Deloitte cautioned that maintaining fiscal discipline would be critical to ensuring long-term debt sustainability.
The report also noted the recent decline in Treasury bill rates, driven by the government’s decision to reject high-yielding bids, as a sign of tightened fiscal management. Yet, Deloitte urged greater coordination between the Finance Ministry and the Bank of Ghana, warning that misalignment of fiscal and monetary policies could undermine broader economic objectives.
Credit Ratings and Eurobond Restructuring
Investor sentiment has already begun to improve. In October 2024, both Moody’s and Fitch upgraded Ghana’s long-term sovereign credit ratings, following a 37% reduction in the principal of the country’s Eurobond debt—a key element of the government’s debt restructuring programme, which is now 93% complete.
Deloitte expects that the finalisation of the restructuring, alongside liability management operations and strategic reserve accumulation in the sinking fund, will enhance Ghana’s debt profile, providing further impetus for credit rating upgrades and attracting fresh capital inflows.
