"Fitch Solutions Upgrades Ghana\u2019s 2025 Growth Forecast to 4.9% on Strong Q1 Performance and Cedi Appreciation"

Fitch Solutions Upgrades Ghana’s 2025 Growth Forecast to 4.9% on Strong Q1 Performance and Cedi Appreciation

Fitch Solutions has revised upwards its 2025 real GDP growth forecast for Ghana from an initial 4.2% to 4.9%, citing stronger-than-expected performance in the first quarter of the year and improved macroeconomic fundamentals.

According to the UK-based research and risk advisory firm, the revision follows the release of robust economic data by the Ghana Statistical Service on June 6, 2025. The data showed Ghana’s real GDP growth accelerated from 3.6% year-on-year in the fourth quarter of 2024 to 5.3% in the first quarter of 2025—well above Fitch’s previous expectation of 3.5% growth.

Agriculture and Mining Lead Q1 Growth Surge

Fitch noted that the unexpected surge in Q1 growth was primarily driven by stronger agricultural output—particularly in crop production and fishing—as well as improved performance in the mining and quarrying sector.

“Despite persistent weakness in hydrocarbons, growth in the mining and quarrying industry was buoyed by rising momentum in gold production amid elevated global prices,” the firm stated.

It also highlighted an uptick in domestic trade as evidence of a gradual rebound in consumer spending, signalling growing economic activity across key sectors.

Consumer Demand and Stronger Cedi to Sustain Momentum

Looking ahead, Fitch Solutions projects that consumer spending will remain the key driver of economic growth for the rest of the year, supported by a significantly stronger Ghanaian cedi and easing inflationary pressures.

“The appreciation of the cedi—by about 50% against the US dollar between April and May—has positioned it as the world’s best-performing currency so far in 2025,” Fitch noted, attributing the currency’s rally to rising gold prices, increased investor confidence, and improved foreign reserves.

The firm forecasts average gold prices to hit a record US$3,100 per ounce in 2025, nearly 30% higher than in 2024, amid heightened geopolitical tensions and increased global central bank purchases. Ghana, as Africa’s leading gold producer, has already seen its gross international reserves climb to nearly US$7.9 billion as of April 2025.

Inflation to Decline on Back of Currency Gains

Fitch believes the cedi’s appreciation will help ease import-driven inflation, especially given Ghana’s reliance on foreign markets for key consumer goods such as fuel, rice, vehicles, and pharmaceuticals.

“With the local currency gaining strength and global commodity prices stabilising, we expect inflation to moderate in the coming months, further supporting household consumption and overall growth,” the firm concluded.

The upward revision signals growing confidence in Ghana’s economic recovery, driven by commodity windfalls, macroeconomic stability, and improved fiscal and external sector indicators.