Global InfoAnalytics Exit Polls Highlight Early Decisions and Voter Shifts in Ghana’s Swing Regions
John Dramani Mahama (JDM) appears to have consolidated a commanding lead in Ghana’s swing regions, according to exit polls conducted by Global InfoAnalytics. The data reveals a decisive shift in voter preferences, with nearly 84% of respondents making their electoral decisions six months before voting day—a finding that underscores the early solidification of political loyalties.
The survey, which covered the Greater Accra, Central, and Western regions, revealed that only 16% of voters made up their minds closer to the election, with a mere 3% deciding in the final week. This dynamic highlights the limited impact of last-minute campaign efforts and the significance of sustained voter engagement.
Vote Buying Prevalence but Limited Returns
The poll revealed widespread allegations of vote buying, with 24% of respondents reporting instances of inducements and 38% admitting to personally accepting offers. The ruling New Patriotic Party (NPP) accounted for 56% of such incidents, compared to 23% for the National Democratic Congress (NDC).
Despite this, the data suggests a mixed return on these investments, with 66% of voters who did not receive inducements supporting Mahama, compared to 55% of those who did.
Among those induced by the NDC, 67% voted for Mahama, while the NPP secured 54% of votes from those it induced. Notably, voters who received offers from both parties leaned more heavily towards Mahama, who secured 53%, compared to 25% for DMB.
Swing Regions Signal Shift
Mahama emerged victorious across the three key regions, securing 58% of votes compared to 34% for DMB. This marks a significant shift from the 2020 elections, where the race was nearly tied. The poll also highlights the NPP’s internal challenges, with 29% of Nana Akufo-Addo’s 2020 voters defecting to Mahama in this election.
The NDC’s recovery was pronounced, with 76% of its 2020 voters who backed Akufo-Addo returning to the fold. Floating voters also tilted decisively towards Mahama, with 65% favoring him compared to 23% for DMB.
Economic Concerns Drive Mahama’s Support
Economic issues played a pivotal role in shaping voter preferences. Mahama dominated among voters prioritizing the economy, securing 62% of those with Junior High School education and 63% of tertiary-educated voters.
This underscores the salience of economic dissatisfaction in the electorate’s decision-making process.
Last-Minute Momentum Shift
While Mahama’s support remained stable in the campaign’s final days, the poll suggests a deceleration in DMB’s momentum.
Among voters deciding in the last week, Mahama led with 50% compared to 35% for DMB.
Strategic Implications
The findings suggest significant hurdles for the NPP, including voter defection and diminishing returns on campaign investments.
Mahama’s ability to capitalize on economic discontent and early voter engagement proved decisive, leaving the NPP with the task of addressing these structural challenges ahead of future electoral contests.
This analysis positions Mahama as the frontrunner in reshaping Ghana’s political landscape, with a strategy rooted in addressing voter concerns and leveraging early momentum. For the NPP, recalibrating its voter engagement and policy appeal will be imperative.
