World Bank Lowers Ghana’s 2025 GDP Growth Outlook to 3.9%, Below Government’s 4.4% Target
The World Bank has revised Ghana’s 2025 economic growth forecast downward to 3.9%, falling short of the Government’s 4.4% target for the year.
This projection, published in the Bretton Woods institution’s April 2025 edition of the Africa’s Pulse report, marks a slight downgrade from its earlier forecast of 4.3%, citing persistent inflation and external vulnerabilities.
Despite the marginal reduction in the 2025 outlook, the World Bank maintains a cautiously optimistic stance on Ghana’s medium-term prospects, projecting GDP growth to pick up to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.8% in 2027.
The report raised concerns over climate-related disruptions, particularly erratic weather patterns adversely impacting cocoa output in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire—two of the world’s largest cocoa producers. The report noted that climate-induced shocks such as droughts and floods continue to drain African government budgets by up to 9%, causing economic losses of between 2% and 5%.
In a positive turn, Ghana was cited as one of the countries showing early signs of economic recovery in 2025. High-frequency indicators, including the Purchasing Managers Index (PMI), pointed to a rebound in business activity. Ghana’s PMI improved from 47.9 in January to 50.6 in March, driven by higher demand, the easing of supply chain disruptions, and renewed business momentum following the December 2024 presidential elections.
“Business activity in Mozambique and Ghana bounced back in February 2025,” the World Bank stated. “The subdued expansion in Ghana reflects greater demand and new business catch-up.”
At the continental level, Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth is projected to edge up from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.5% in 2025, and further to 4.3% in the 2026–2027 period. However, the region’s growth trajectory remains constrained by the underperformance of its three largest economies—Angola, Nigeria, and South Africa. Excluding these economies, the rest of the region is projected to grow by 4.6% in 2025 and accelerate to 5.7% by 2027.
The World Bank, however, warned that downside risks remain elevated, with global policy uncertainty, climate shocks, and fiscal constraints posing threats to sustained recovery across the continent.
