"South Africa\u2019s power crisis will continue until 2025; blackouts will take 5 years to phase out"

" South Africa\u2019s power crisis will continue until 2025; blackouts will take 5 years to phase out \r\n\r\nSouth Africa is in the middle of a\u00a0 severe electricity crisis , with enforced power cuts that have worsened every year. Electricity is sometimes unavailable for 10 hours a day. The shortfall is the consequence of frequent breakdowns at its ageing\u00a0 coal power plants, which constitute 74% of the country\u2019s generating capacity .\r\n\r\nIn theory, improving the performance and reliability of the existing coal plants would resolve the power crisis. This\u00a0 remedy is promoted in some quarters . But it\u2019s easier said than done. To function satisfactorily, many of the plants would require a complete overhaul, which would be both time consuming and prohibitively costly.\r\n\r\nEstimates suggest that South Africa\u00a0 needs around 6,000MW of extra capacity \u00a0to overcome the current deficit. The following sections explain why I predict it is likely to require as long as five years to eradicate this shortfall, though partial improvement should already be felt by the end of 2024.\r\n\r\nBuilding new coal, nuclear or gas plants is still being considered to improve future power supply, but these typically require construction times of 10 years. They would therefore not play a role in the short- to medium-term period under consideration, and I don\u2019t discuss them further here.\r\n\r\n Time lines for fixing existing power stations \r\n\r\nThe 4,800MW\u00a0 Kusile and its twin Medupi \u00a0are the two largest power stations in South Africa, and among the biggest coal plants in the world. Their construction was commissioned in 2007. At the time they were expected to guarantee South Africa ample electricity supply and allow the decommissioning of older plants.\r\n\r\nBut the construction of the plants\u00a0 proceeded disastrously . Costs escalated to more than double the initial projections and construction was much slower than anticipated. One of Kusile\u2019s six units has still not been finished.\r\n\r\nCalamity also struck twice in the first few years of operation. The damage caused by an\u00a0 explosion at Medupi\u2019s Unit 4 \u00a0in 2021 resulted in so much damage that the unit not yet been brought back on line. Then in October last year a\u00a0 chimney at Kusile collapsed . This forced the closure of three Kusile units.\r\n\r\nThe 1,800MW Koeberg nuclear power plant has in recent decades contributed\u00a0 about 5% of South Africa\u2019s electricity . It will reach the end of its initially projected 40-year lifespan in 2024. To extend its operating licence for a further 20 years, the National Nuclear Regulator requires specific part replacements and upgrades, the most significant being the installation of new steam generators.\r\n\r\nThese operations were initially projected to require 10 months (five months for each of Koeberg\u2019s two units) to be completed. The attempted upgrade of the first unit early last year\u00a0 was aborted \u00a0after it became clear that preparations for the project were incomplete.\r\n\r\nThe second attempt began in January this year. But it has already been acknowledged that this stage, initially projected to end in June,\u00a0 will not be completed until at least August . After that a similar process will commence for the other unit, and this will be followed by a 200 day planned outage.\r\n\r\nKoeberg is therefore effectively only running at half-power, and this state of affairs will likely\u00a0 continue into 2025 .\r\n\r\n Gas power ships \r\n\r\nAmid clear signs of a deepening power crisis, the minister of mineral resources and energy in 2021 announced\u00a0 successful bids to supply 2,000MW of emergency power . The bulk of this award, 1,200MW, was allocated to Turkey\u2019s Karpowership, a company with a fleet of floating gas plants to be shipped in and moored in three of South Africa\u2019s ports \u2013 Richards Bay, Nqurha and Saldanha.\r\n\r\nThe award attracted controversy, with accusations that the terms of reference of this bidding round amounted to\u00a0 an unfair advantage \u00a0to Karpowership. Court challenges queried the legality of the\u00a0 environmental impact approvals \u00a0too.\r\n\r\nThe key objection to the Karpowership deal is that it would cement what is painted as an arrangement for temporary emergency power for a 20-year period.\r\n\r\nThis opposition and delays in some other projects reaching financial close mean that the emergency programme is at least a year behind schedule. Some might come on line at the end of 2023, but the added capacity would decrease South Africa\u2019s electricity shortfall by only a moderate amount.\r\n\r\n Renewables \r\n\r\nThe\u00a0 Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Programme \u00a0was designed to enable the production of mostly solar and wind energy by private developers, who would then sell it to the power utility, Eskom.\r\n\r\nGiven the intermittency of sunshine and wind, solar and wind farms in South Africa on average typically only produce\u00a0 about 25% (solar) and 35% (wind) \u00a0of what they can generate under ideal conditions. Meeting a national shortfall of 6,000MW with one of these technologies alone would therefore require solar farms with a total capacity of 24,000MW, or wind farms with a total capacity of 18,000MW.\r\n\r\nTwo rounds of establishing\u00a0 new plants under the renewables programme are under way . The first of these should see 1,000MW of solar power and 1,600MW of wind power come on stream by early 2025, while the second round will see a further 1,000MW of solar projects completed about a year later.\r\n\r\nA mega-initiative to install\u00a0 15,000MW of solar and wind power \u00a0has recently been touted by the new electricity minister. While this would massively ameliorate the power scarcity, it would be very challenging to construct such a large number of solar plants simultaneously, due to potential import bottlenecks and a shortage of skilled installers. So while some of these plants might be ready by late 2025, the entire programme is likely to require five years.\r\n\r\n Domestic and private solar installations \r\n\r\nThe greatest progress in accelerating electricity production has been achieved by\u00a0 small-scale solar power installation initiatives , ranging from municipal or private enterprise solar farms to solar panels on household roofs. Although this component is still comparatively small, late last year the president announced that\u00a0 projects amounting to a total of 9,000MW were under development .\r\n\r\nDespite the major growth in this sphere, the rollout of private solar installations is hampered by the same constraints faced by the renewables programmes: import bottlenecks and skills shortages. While municipalities and smaller entities able to get such programmes working will experience considerable relief from power cuts, these initiatives will only moderately cut the national shortfall.\r\n\r\n The timeframe for a possible recovery \r\n\r\nAny remedies to the South African power crisis initiated now or already under development are not going to have a significant impact this year. The projections also assume that no major setback like last year\u2019s Kusile accident is imminent.\r\n\r\n1,000-2,000MW might be added to the generating capacity towards the end of the year, but a substantial decrease in the power shortage will only be possible towards the end of 2024, if Kusile repairs are then completed as expected, and when several renewable energy initiatives should come on line.\r\n\r\nEnding power cuts completely will probably take another five years if the infusion of more solar and wind capacity proceeds as currently planned."

"South Africa\u2019s power crisis will continue until 2025; blackouts will take 5 years to phase out"

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