Dr Theo Acheampong Backs 2026 Budget as “Credible” and Key to Sustaining Ghana’s Macroeconomic Turnaround
Newly appointed Technical Advisor at the Ministry for Finance, Dr Theo Acheampong, has described the 2026 Budget presented to Parliament by the Minister for Finance, Dr Cassiel Ato Forson, as a credible fiscal plan that consolidates Ghana’s ongoing macroeconomic recovery while positioning the economy for gradual transformation and job creation.
In an assessment shared on Thursday, Dr Acheampong noted that the 2026 Budget “anchors and potentially delivers some transformation and job creation, and broadly protects and incrementally scales key social programmes.”
He said Ghana’s macroeconomic reset has outperformed expectations recorded two years ago. “The current macro reset [is] better than what many (including myself) would have predicted two years ago,” he stated. However, he emphasised that sustaining the gains will hinge on strict fiscal discipline, deeper energy sector and SOE reforms, and the absence of major external shocks, particularly commodity price volatility.
Below is a breakdown of the key points he made regarding the 2026 Budget:
𝗕𝗨𝗗𝗚𝗘𝗧 𝟮𝟬𝟮𝟲 — 𝗖𝗢𝗡𝗦𝗢𝗟𝗜𝗗𝗔𝗧𝗜𝗡𝗚 𝗧𝗛𝗘 𝗚𝗔𝗜𝗡𝗦
1. This is a credible budget that consolidates Ghana’s macro turnaround, anchors and potentially delivers some transformation and job creation, and broadly protects and incrementally scales key social programmes.
2. The current macro reset better than what many (including myself) would have predicted two years ago. Nevertheless, it is still a path which is highly dependent on continued fiscal discipline, pushing through major energy sector and other SOE reforms, and having limited major external shocks (e.g. gold or cocoa prices).
3. Fiscal metrics have improved meaningfully: the debt dynamics look much better; disinflation is still ongoing; the 2026 fiscal projections are very much in line with IMF programme anchors, especially given Ghana’s current programme ends in May 2026.
4. Of course, key vulnerabilities and concerns remain: 1. leaning on expenditure restraint, especially CAPEX; 2. revenue improvement continues (buoyant revenue and higher tax effort) and 3. SOE exposures (underlying structural problems including tariff under-recovery, governance, legacy arrears, etc.). Other external pressures are vulnerability to external financing and commodity shocks.
5. What this means is that government has to be (and is being) razor sharp on capital budget execution and recurrent expenditure controls to contain spending in 2026. There’s commitment to this as indicated by the 2025 fiscals. The markets will be watching this closely. As S&P noted in their recent upgrade of Ghana’s sovereign credit rating to ‘B-/B’ “the effectiveness of these new measures is yet to be fully tested through the economic cycle–and especially the electoral cycle”.
6. There also is a clear attempt to link the macro-micro disconnect. macro stability has improved faster. The emphasis is further on micro/business-environment reforms needed for sustained private investment and household consumption. And some productivity enhancing infrastructure like the tolled PPP Accra-Kumasi expressway, and the hugely important Ekye Amanfrom-Adawso Bridge to open up the Afram plains, one of Ghana’s food baskets. There are also proposals to get more returns from our oil-backed sovereign wealth fund through investments in commercially viable domestic energy sector projects, among others.
7. COVID-19 levy has been scrapped and VAT regime is being harmonised through 1. abolishing VAT on reconnaissance and prospecting of minerals; 2. Reduction of the effective VAT rate by 190 basis points from 21.9% to 20%; increase in the VAT registration threshold from GH¢200,000 to GH¢750,000 — inflation-linked increase in real terms.
8. Overall, I expect the markets (FX, Eurobonds, local capital markets) to react positively to the budget numbers in the coming days – I will provide updates on how this plays out. My full evidence-based take coming tomorrow (of course with plenty charts).
