Ex-pump Prices: Petrol to rise to GHS 12.41; diesel to fall to GHS 11.40 – COPEC projects
The Chamber of Petroleum Consumer (COPEC) has released its latest forecast on the retail prices of petrol, diesel, and LPG, and the findings indicate a potential increase in petrol prices and a decrease in diesel prices. The report suggests that the price of petrol at the retail pumps may rise by an average of 2.01% from the current mean value of ¢12.16 per liter to ¢12.41 per liter, effective from April 16th, 2023. This prediction is based on the increase in international benchmark pricing from $772.75 per metric tonne to $900.20 per metric tonne, indicating a significant rise of 16.49%.
On the other hand, the price of diesel is expected to decline by -5.58% from the current value of ¢12.71 per liter to between ¢11.40 and ¢12.60 per liter. The report cites the average rates of the Chamber of Bulk Oil Distributors, which range from about $1 to ¢12.50, as a contributing factor.
The international price of LPG has also undergone a slight increase from $530.10 per metric tonne to $535.45 per metric tonne, representing a 1.01% rise. However, due to a decline in the forex rate for the period, the projected retail price of LPG is expected to decrease by about -4.74% from the current industry retail average of 12.04 per kilogram to GHS11.47 per kilogram. As a result, LPG is expected to be sold between ¢10.90 per kilogram and ¢12.04 per kilogram.
COPEC has called on the government to consider easing taxes on LPG or implementing a subsidy program to promote and increase its usage. The report highlights that LPG consumption has generally dropped by 12% in 2022, and implementing these measures could help to save the environment.
The rationale behind these predictions is based on the demand and supply dynamics of the industry. According to COPEC, crude pricing has seen an increase from the previous mean price of $74.73 per barrel to $81.69 per barrel, representing a 9.31% rise. Additionally, the forex market has recorded a decline in depreciation from an earlier average of ¢12.5867 to ¢11.5450, indicating an 8.28% decrease per $1.
Overall, these predictions highlight the volatility and unpredictability of the petroleum industry, which is subject to a range of economic and geopolitical factors. Investors and stakeholders in the industry will need to remain vigilant and proactive in response to these developments, which may impact prices and profitability.
