Cameroon’s Growth Slows to 3.1% in 2025 as Fiscal Slippages Widen – IMF
Cameroon’s economy expanded by 3.1 percent in 2025, reflecting a slowdown from earlier projections as election-related disruptions weighed on trade, services and investment activity, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has said.
The Bretton Woods institution, following the conclusion of its Article IV Consultation with the country on March 25, noted that despite the slowdown, the economy has remained broadly resilient to external shocks in recent years.
Inflation moderated to an average of 3.4 percent by end-December 2025, driven largely by easing food and transport prices. However, fiscal performance weakened over the period, with the non-oil primary deficit widening to 2.6 percent of GDP, exceeding the budget target of 1.4 percent.
The IMF attributed the fiscal slippage to weaker-than-expected non-oil revenue mobilisation and overruns in current expenditure.
On the external front, Cameroon’s current account deficit is estimated to have widened to 3.9 percent of GDP in 2025, up from 3.3 percent in 2024, largely on the back of lower oil export receipts.
Outlook remains cautiously positive
The IMF projects a modest recovery in economic activity, with growth expected to rise to 3.3 percent in 2026, supported by increased public investment. Inflation is also forecast to ease further to 2.9 percent.
However, the current account deficit is projected to widen further to 5.3 percent of GDP in 2026, driven primarily by declining cocoa prices.
Over the medium term, growth is expected to strengthen to 4.6 percent, supported by mining sector diversification, while the current account deficit is projected to narrow to about 4.0 percent of GDP.
Nonetheless, the Fund cautioned that the outlook is subject to significant downside risks, including Cameroon’s exposure to volatile commodity prices, tightening global financial conditions, and policy uncertainties within the Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC).
The IMF further warned that reduced external aid, large debt amortisation obligations, and tight liquidity conditions could heighten financing risks.
Call for fiscal discipline and reforms
The IMF Executive Board underscored the need for sustained fiscal consolidation to safeguard debt sustainability and regional macroeconomic stability.
Directors called for strengthened domestic revenue mobilisation and tighter expenditure controls, alongside improvements in public investment management to create fiscal space for priority infrastructure and social spending.
They also highlighted the importance of completing fuel subsidy reforms, including the adoption of an automatic fuel pricing mechanism supported by targeted interventions to protect vulnerable households.
On debt management, the IMF noted elevated risks of debt distress and urged the authorities to prioritise concessional financing over costly commercial borrowing, while embedding arrears clearance within a credible medium-term financing framework.
The Board further stressed the need for comprehensive reforms in state-owned enterprises and enhanced fiscal transparency to improve resilience.
Financial sector and structural reforms key
The IMF flagged rising non-performing loans and the strong linkages between the sovereign and banking sector as key vulnerabilities, urging strengthened oversight and governance, particularly in state-owned banks.
It also called for accelerated reforms in anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) to support Cameroon’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list.
Directors emphasised that advancing structural reforms—particularly in governance, regulatory efficiency, and climate resilience—will be critical to unlocking private sector-led growth and sustaining long-term economic expansion.
The IMF indicated that it will maintain close engagement with Cameroonian authorities under the Post-Financing Assessment framework, with the next Article IV consultation expected within the standard 12-month cycle.
