Fitch forecasts 10% reduction in imports for 2023
Imports, according to Fitch Solutions is set to contract by 10.0% in 2023.
This is from a robust growth of 7.3% in 2022.
Imports are, however, expected to recover starting from 2024.
According to Fitch Solutions, imports will contract more sharply than exports due to weak domestic demand.
“While export growth will also remain in contractionary territory in H223, the decline will be less pronounced than imports,” adds Fitch Solutions.
Reduced imports due to weak domestic demand Fitch Solutions notes, is expected to lead to a current account surplus of 1.3% of GDP in 2023, from a deficit of 2.1% of GDP in 2022 – the first time in 20 years that Ghana records a full-year current account surplus.
However, in 2024, the current account balance will slip back into deficit to a shortfall of 0.2% of GDP, as imports recover while exports will record sluggish growth due to a projected moderation in global gold and cocoa prices.
Merchandise imports contracted by 13.0% y-o-y in H123 as a result of weak domestic demand and lower global commodity prices.
Meanwhile, exports fell by 7.2%, pushing up the trade surplus to USD299.6mn, from USD245.7mn in H122.
Data released by the Bank of Ghana (BoG) shows that the overall current account balance posted a surplus of USD0.8bn in H123, compared to a deficit of USD1.1bn in the corresponding period of 2022.
