Fitch Solutions Maintains Optimistic 4.3% Growth Forecast for Ghana in 2024
Fitch Solutions has upheld its optimistic forecast for Ghana’s economic growth in 2024, projecting a 4.3% expansion.
This estimate significantly surpasses the projections by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at 2.9% and the Ghanaian government’s revised forecast of 3.1%.
The research firm attributes the stronger-than-anticipated growth to sustained consumer spending and a promising outlook for the extractive sector.
According to Mike Kruiniger, Associate Director of Country Risk at Fitch Solutions, Ghana’s economy is expected to be bolstered by robust performance in the oil and gas sector alongside resilient consumer spending patterns.
“We expect economic growth to remain stronger than what we have seen in the past couple of years, with forecasts predicting 4.3% in 2024 and 4.5% the following year,” Mr Kruiniger noted during the Mid-Year Review for Sub-Saharan Africa.
He highlighted the recovery of Ghana’s oil sector, particularly activities at the Jubilee and TEN fields, as a critical factor in the positive outlook.
Inflation and Investment Trends
While inflation remained elevated at an average of 24.2% in the first quarter of 2024, Fitch Solutions anticipates a downward trend, projecting it to decline to 19.5% by the end of the year.
This reduction is expected to be driven primarily by statistical base effects. Additionally, increased government spending ahead of the December general elections is predicted to support consumer activity and boost domestic demand.
Fitch Solutions also forecasts a continued recovery in fixed investment throughout 2024, further reinforcing the positive growth trajectory for Ghana’s economy.
The bullish outlook from Fitch Solutions stands in contrast to more conservative estimates from other institutions, highlighting a divergence in expectations for Ghana’s economic performance for this year.
