- Petrol Prices to Fall as Diesel and LPG Rise From November 1 – COMAC
Petrol prices are projected to decline by up to 3.35% from November 1, while diesel and liquefied petroleum gas prices are expected to rise during the first pricing window of the month, according to the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies.
COMAC expects diesel prices to increase by approximately 1.50%, with LPG rising by 0.81% per kilogram during the November 1–15 pricing window.
Market estimates indicate that petrol could retail at approximately GH¢17.02 per litre, while diesel could reach GH¢18.99 per litre.
Final pump prices will differ among oil marketing companies because individual firms will apply their respective operational costs, dealer margins, product premiums and competitive pricing strategies.
The mixed outlook reflects different movements in international refined petroleum product prices, despite a general decline in crude oil prices and an appreciation of the Ghana cedi.
Crude oil prices fell by 1.90% during the review period. However, the international prices of petrol, diesel and LPG did not move in the same direction.
International petrol prices declined by 4.97%, providing the principal basis for the expected reduction at Ghanaian pumps.
Diesel prices increased by 3.54% on the international market, creating upward pressure on the domestic price of a product used extensively by transport operators, manufacturers, mines and businesses that depend on backup generators.
International LPG prices recorded the largest movement, rising by 21.33% during the review period.
Despite the sharp increase in the international LPG price, COMAC expects the adjustment at Ghanaian retail outlets to be limited to approximately 0.81%.
The cedi appreciated by 0.70% during the pricing review, strengthening to an average of GH¢11.7326 against the US dollar between October 12 and October 27.
Because Ghana imports a substantial proportion of its refined petroleum products, the exchange rate is a major component of the domestic pricing formula. A stronger cedi reduces the local-currency amount required by importers to purchase products priced in dollars.
The currency appreciation consequently helped reduce the expected petrol price and moderated the increases projected for diesel and LPG.
COMAC attributed part of the cedi’s recent support to foreign-exchange interventions by the Ghana Gold Board over the past three weeks.
The Chamber also cited plans for a US$1.5 billion foreign-exchange injection intended to support the currency’s stability and recovery ahead of the festive season.
Sustained cedi appreciation would provide additional relief to petroleum consumers, although any renewed depreciation could quickly reverse the benefit because of the sector’s dependence on imported products.
Government and industry interventions are also expected to prevent consumers from facing the full increase in diesel prices.
Adjustments to the Energy Sector Shortfall and Debt Repayment Levy and selected statutory margins in the diesel price build-up will remain in effect for one month.
“The total value of the intervention remains unchanged, maintaining the government–industry burden-sharing arrangement introduced on April 16, 2026, to moderate increases in diesel prices at the pumps,” COMAC said.
The intervention means a portion of the cost increase that would ordinarily be passed directly to motorists and businesses is being absorbed through adjustments to the diesel pricing structure.
While this provides temporary relief, continued interventions could create fiscal or energy-sector financing pressures if they significantly reduce revenues required to meet statutory obligations.
The National Petroleum Authority has meanwhile established new minimum price floors for the November 1–15 window.
The minimum price floor for petrol has been reduced from GH¢16.09 to GH¢15.39 per litre.
Diesel’s floor has increased from GH¢17.09 to GH¢17.41 per litre, reflecting the upward pressure from international product prices.
The LPG floor has been reduced from GH¢13.89 to GH¢13.73 per kilogram, despite COMAC’s projection that actual retail prices could rise marginally.
The price floors are not the final amounts consumers will necessarily pay at filling stations. They represent the minimum prices below which petroleum products cannot be sold during the pricing window.
They exclude premiums charged by international oil trading companies, the operating margins of bulk import, distribution and export companies and the margins applied by oil and LPG marketing companies.
These additional charges are determined independently by the companies under the prescribed petroleum products pricing formula.
Differences in stock levels and the timing of product purchases could also influence how quickly individual companies adjust their prices. Some marketers may reduce petrol prices immediately, while others may maintain existing prices until they sell older, higher-cost stock.
The expected reduction in petrol prices should provide modest relief to private motorists and commercial transport operators using petrol-powered vehicles.
However, the projected diesel increase could place renewed pressure on haulage companies, public transport operators, farmers and businesses with significant fuel requirements.
Diesel has a broader influence on production and distribution costs because it powers much of Ghana’s commercial transport, construction machinery, agricultural equipment and industrial backup generation.
Even a relatively small increase can therefore affect the cost of moving food, manufactured goods and other commodities across the country.
The first November pricing window consequently presents a divided outlook for consumers.
Petrol users are likely to benefit from lower international prices and a stronger cedi, while diesel users face an increase driven by rising international product costs.
The direction of fuel prices during the second half of November will depend largely on whether the cedi maintains its recent appreciation, how global refined-product prices respond to geopolitical and supply developments, and whether the government–industry diesel intervention remains sustainable.
