Russia still expects oil export revenue to climb through 2026
Russia is still expecting its oil export revenues to continue to increase through the next three years—even in the face of Western price caps and embargos, according to a government created forecast that was submitted to Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin and seen by Bloomberg.
The forecast, which covers the years 2023 through 2026, estimates its average price for crude oil at $62.70 per barrel—that’s nearly $3 above the price cap established by the G7 at the end of 2022. As global crude oil prices rallied over the course of the last month, Russia’s price for its crude oil also rose, with some trading above the cap.
Next year, Russia sees the price for its crude rising to $66.30, to $67.90 in 2025, and nearly $70 per barrel by 2026—the last year that the forecast covers.
Although Russian crude is now trading above the price cap, the G7 has canceled its plans to regularly review the price cap on Russia’s crude oil exports—and hasn’t done so since March. The G7 established a price cap of $60 per barrel on Russian crude shipments to third countries outside the EU that use Western insurance and financing. This excludes India and China, who have taken a significant amount of Russian crude oil but have not purposefully adhered to the price cap.
Russia’s Urals averaged $74 per barrel in August, down from August 2022, but still well above the $60 price cap, according to data released last week from the Russian Finance Ministry. The average price for Urals between January and August this year was $56.48 per barrel—well under the G7’s price cap. This compares to $82.13 per barrel that Russia received between January and August of last year.
