IMF Projects 4% GDP Growth for Ghana in 2025, Below Government Target
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that Ghana’s economy will grow by 4% by the end of 2025, slightly below the Government of Ghana’s 4.4% growth target set in the 2025 national budget.
This was contained in the IMF’s Global Economic Outlook Report released on October 14, 2025, on the sidelines of the Annual World Bank/IMF Spring Meetings in Washington D.C., USA.
The IMF further anticipates a faster expansion of 4.8% in 2026, reflecting expectations of continued recovery under Ghana’s IMF-supported economic programme.
Ghana’s economy grew by 6.3% in the second quarter of 2025, driven largely by the services sector, which expanded by 9.9% and contributed the highest share to GDP.
IMF and World Bank Projections Diverge
Although the IMF did not provide specific reasons for its 2025 forecast, sources close to the Fund say the outlook reflects Ghana’s ongoing fiscal and structural reforms, aimed at stabilising the economy and restoring investor confidence.
The IMF’s projection is slightly lower than the World Bank’s 4.3% end-of-year growth forecast for Ghana, contained in the Bank’s Africa Pulse Report released earlier in October 2025.
According to some analysts, the variance suggests that the IMF remains “cautiously optimistic” about Ghana’s short-term growth outlook, compared to the relatively more bullish stance of the World Bank.
IMF Inflation Outlook for Ghana
The IMF expects Ghana’s inflation to close 2025 at 12%, marginally above the government’s target of 11.9%.
This contrasts with Ghana’s recent performance, where headline inflation fell sharply to 9.4% in September 2025 — from 21.5% in the same period last year — supported by a stable exchange rate and improved food supply.
The Fund’s forecast makes it the second major international institution, after the World Bank, to express doubts about Ghana sustaining single-digit inflation by year-end. The World Bank, in its October Africa Pulse Report, projected a higher inflation rate of 15.4% for 2025.
Observers describe the projections as “interesting,” given the downward inflation trend, which local analysts suggest could reach as low as 7% in October 2025 based on recent price data.
Despite the external projections, the Bank of Ghana maintains that inflation will remain in the single-digit range by December 2025, citing effective monetary policy tightening and fiscal discipline.
The IMF, however, forecasts a further decline in inflation to 9.4% in 2026.
