High Gold Prices Will Keep Ghana’s Current Account In Surplus In 2025, Says Fitch Solutions
Fitch Solutions forecasts that Ghana’s current account surplus will remain sizeable at 1.8% of GDP in 2025, following a record 3.6% in 2024.
Data released by the Bank of Ghana shows that the country achieved a record goods trade surplus of 6.4% of GDP in 2024, more than double the 2019-2023 average of 3.0%.
This performance was driven by robust gold exports—Ghana’s largest goods export—due to increased local production and exceptionally high global gold prices caused by lower interest rate expectations and geopolitical uncertainty.
In addition, primary income outflows remained modest in 2024, as interest payments on much of Ghana’s external debt remained suspended following the country’s sovereign default in December 2022.
“Ghana’s goods trade surplus will remain large at 5.0% of GDP in 2025 as exports continue to grow. Our Commodities team projects that global gold prices will average USD2,500/oz this year—4.6% higher than the 2024 record of USD2,390/oz—amid uncertainty over US trade policies, particularly regarding tariffs, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks in the Middle East and Ukraine,” Fitch Solutions stated.
“Coupled with further gains in Ghana’s gold output, this will provide tailwinds to exports. In addition, we expect that Ghana’s cocoa production will rebound in the 2024/25 season (October-September) following a poor previous harvest caused by the El Nino weather phenomenon, also supporting export growth. Overall, we project goods exports to expand by 4.2% in 2025, following an exceptionally strong 21.1% surge in 2024,” it added.
