Fiscal Discipline, Strong External Buffers and Credible Policy Signalling to Anchor Cedi Stability After IMF Exit – Dr Theo Acheampong
Ghana’s ability to sustain cedi stability beyond its International Monetary Fund (IMF) programme will hinge largely on fiscal discipline, strong external buffers and credible policy signalling, according to Dr Theo Acheampong, Technical Advisor at the Ministry of Finance.
Speaking at the NorvanReports and Economic Governance Platform (EGP) X Space themed “Cedi Stability in 2026: Can Ghana Hold the Line After the IMF?”, Dr Acheampong said predictable macroeconomic conditions remain critical for economic planning and investor confidence.
“Everybody wants to plan on the basis of stability, and once you can set a stable expectation, planning becomes one less hurdle,” he noted, pointing to the significant appreciation of the cedi from May 2025 through the latter part of the year against major international currencies.
Dr Acheampong attributed the currency’s recent performance largely to external sector dynamics, particularly Ghana’s commodity exports. He explained that although the country has become a net exporter, export earnings are still driven predominantly by three commodities – gold, cocoa and oil.
Citing Bank of Ghana data, he said Ghana recorded total exports of about US$31 billion as at December 2025, with gold alone contributing roughly US$21 billion, against imports of US$17.5 billion.
“In effect, gold exports alone are able to cover most of Ghana’s import bill,” he said, describing this as a key stabilising factor for the balance of payments, the current account position and foreign exchange reserves.
Beyond external conditions, Dr Acheampong stressed that domestic fiscal discipline will be decisive in maintaining currency stability after Ghana exits the IMF programme.
He referenced recent amendments to the Public Financial Management (PFM) Act, which introduced two binding fiscal rules, a public debt ceiling and a primary balance rule. Under the revised framework, public debt is capped at 45 per cent of GDP by 2034, while government is required to maintain a primary surplus of at least 1.5 per cent on a commitment basis.
According to him, provisional 2025 figures suggest Ghana’s debt-to-GDP ratio stands at about 46–47 per cent, placing the country close to the medium-term target.
“The key issue going forward is how we live within our means,” he said, adding that early indications show continued adherence to the primary surplus rule into 2026.
Dr Acheampong also underscored the growing importance of institutional oversight in a post-IMF environment, highlighting the role of the Fiscal Council in monitoring compliance with fiscal rules.
In addition, he revealed that the Ministry of Finance has established a dedicated compliance division to enforce PFM-related reforms and commitment controls, aimed at preventing arrears accumulation and expenditure overruns.
“As we exit the Fund programme, enforcement of the amended PFM regime becomes even more critical,” he said.
On the monetary side, Dr Acheampong said continued reserve accumulation by the Bank of Ghana will remain essential, noting that maintaining a minimum of three months of import cover is a key policy anchor.
He referenced IMF analysis showing that favourable gold price movements can significantly boost reserve levels and strengthen external buffers if properly managed.
Summing up, Dr Acheampong said sustained currency stability in 2026 and beyond will depend on four core factors: favourable external conditions, especially gold prices; strict control of public spending; prevention of arrears build-up through effective commitment controls; and alignment of medium-term debt strategy with fiscal rules.
“Fundamentally, it’s about sending credible signals to the market. From where I sit, the markets are interpreting those signals correctly, and I don’t see any reason why we should not be able to sustain the performance we saw in 2025, ” he said.
