Goldman Sachs expects commodities supercycle
Goldman Sachs expects a commodities supercycle driven by China and the capital flight from energy markets and investment this month after concerns triggered by the banking sector, the US bank’s head of commodities said.
“As losses mounted, it spilled into commodities,” Jeff Currie, global head of commodities for Goldman Sachs, told the Financial Times Commodities Global Summit on Tuesday.
“Historically, when you have this kind of scarring event, it takes months to get capital back … We will still get a deficit by June and it will drive oil prices higher.”
Oil prices tanked to 15-month lows as a crisis at Switzerland’s second-biggest bank Credit Suisse, which followed the collapse of two US lenders, led to a takeover by bigger Swiss rival UBS.
Currie emphasised the hit was to the supply side rather than demand and he remains very bullish on copper.
“The deposits have already left …Cash is going into money markets not into the banks.”
“On copper, the forward outlook is extraordinarily postive. We’ll be at the lowest observable inventories that have ever been recorded at 125,000 tonnes. We have peak supply occuring in 2024…Near term we put (the copper price) at $10,500 and longer term our price target is $15,000 a tonne.”
His remarks echoed those of major copper trader Trafigura which said the price could top $12,000. Copper hit a record high $10,845 in March 2022.
Currie added that concerns about the banking sector were centred around US regional banks while Europe was relatively safe from contagion.
