Fitch Solutions Sees Rebound in Public Investment to Support Ghana’s Growth in 2026
Fitch Solutions has projected a rebound in public-sector capital expenditure in 2026 following a sharp contraction in development spending in 2025, providing further support to Ghana’s economic growth outlook.
According to the firm, Ministry of Finance data show that development spending declined by 48.3% in the first seven months of 2025, reflecting tight fiscal conditions during the year. However, the 2026 Budget signals a strong reversal, with government allocating GH¢30.0 billion (about US$2.6 billion) to the Big Push Infrastructure Programme, up significantly from GH¢13.8 billion in the revised 2025 budget.
The programme includes major infrastructure projects such as the Accra–Kumasi Expressway and the Eke Amanfrom–Adawso Bridge, which Fitch Solutions expects to provide a boost to construction activity and overall fixed capital formation.
Against this backdrop, the firm forecasts fixed investment growth of 10.0% in 2026, contributing an estimated 1.5 percentage points to headline real GDP growth.
Fitch Solutions also expects looser monetary and fiscal conditions to support economic expansion in 2026, alongside improved performance in the external sector driven by higher commodity output.
On exports, the firm noted that while export values surged in 2025, the increase was largely driven by record prices for gold and cocoa rather than growth in production volumes. Export volumes were constrained by declining oil production and a slowdown in gold output growth during the year.
This dynamic is expected to shift in 2026. Fitch Solutions’ Oil and Gas team forecasts crude oil production to return to growth, expanding by 5.1%, supported by resumed drilling at the Jubilee offshore field in early November and the coming onstream of a second new production well, J73-P, by the end of 2025.
Gold production growth is also projected to accelerate from 5.1% in 2025 to 7.0% in 2026. This will be driven in part by Newmont’s Ahafo North mine, which is expected to begin commercial production in late 2025 and add an estimated 275,000 to 325,000 ounces annually from 2026. Additional gains are anticipated from the Bibiani mine, where an expansion project and the commissioning of a new sulphide treatment plant are expected to lift output.
Despite the improved export outlook, Fitch Solutions cautioned that imports are likely to strengthen in 2026 amid robust domestic demand. With inflation remaining low by recent standards and borrowing costs easing, demand for imported consumer goods, capital inputs, and business services is expected to rise.
As a result, the firm forecasts that net exports will subtract about 1.5 percentage points from headline economic growth in 2026, offsetting a significant portion of the gains from higher exports.
