Africa Setting New Terms for the Scramble of its Minerals
Africa is setting the terms for the new scramble for its minerals by pooling regional strengths and mobilizing capital. Several nations are tightening export rules, demanding more local processing and value addition as the global competition for its mineral resources heightens to power the latest ambitions in tech.
Bonface Orucho, bird story agency
Over the past two years, African governments have tightened rules on raw mineral exports and are demanding local processing.
“Africa is no longer just accepting deals, it is setting the terms, said Solomon Muyeka of the African Minerals and Geosciences Centre.
From Lusaka to Harare, this new assertiveness is reshaping investor strategies and shifting how the continent engages global powers over cobalt, lithium, copper, and rare earths.
“We want partners who will help us process, not just extract,” Zambia’s mines minister Paul Kabuswe said in July, as Lusaka signed a cooperation framework with Saudi Arabia. His words reflect a position that is fast becoming continental. In June, Zimbabwe announced a ban on raw lithium exports from 2027, requiring local processing before shipment. Namibia, Ghana, Nigeria, and others have also in the past introduced similar measures covering unprocessed critical minerals. These rules are forcing investors to build refineries, transfer technology, and create jobs locally, instead of treating African mines as supply pits.
Firstly, through legislation, African governments are shifting the balance of power in mining, ensuring more value stays on the continent. Secondly, efforts are being coordinated among partnering African countries. In 2022, for instance, Zambia and the Democratic Republic of Congo launched a joint Electric Vehicle Battery Council, backed by the African Development Bank, to build a regional value chain.
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Since that announcement the council has moved beyond talk and into planning, with new partners, infrastructure plans and policy work aimed at turning minerals into factories, not just cargoes. According to UNECA, a pre-feasibility study for a transboundary Special Economic Zone was completed in 2024, and governments have identified specific sites where cathode precursor plants, cell assembly lines and related logistics hubs can be built. The aim is to stitch together the DRC’s cobalt and copper with Zambia’s processing capacity, then add assembly and export platforms so Africa captures more of the final value.
Morocco joined the effort in late 2024, bringing an established automotive sector into the mix, and the three countries have outlined a trilateral e-mobility roadmap that officials expect to formalize with a memorandum of understanding this year (in 2025). Such a shift matters as the council is racing against market and technology changes.
Cobalt prices slid into structural oversupply in late 2024, and Kinshasa imposed a temporary cobalt export ban in early 2025 to shore up local prices. At the same time, battery technology is leaning toward lithium iron phosphate chemistries that require little or no cobalt, creating a medium-term demand risk for cobalt-heavy value chains. There is growing interest in centering partnerships on industrial policy, investment guarantees, and physical infrastructure to achieve those outcomes. According to Solomon Muyeka of the African Minerals and Geosciences Centre, Special Economic Zones, local content rules, and coordinated export management “should be prioritized.”
“They are the most practical tools that can turn mineral endowments into factories and jobs,” he said.
Thirdly, African countries are leveraging is continental coordination with initiatives such as the AfCFTA. The African Union is emerging as the next frontier for coordination, with regulators pushing for harmonised laws that strengthen bargaining power. Namibia’s first lithium shipment under the continental trade framework in June, alongside earlier AfCFTA-linked salt exports, shows how critical minerals are being folded into the pact. By embedding these resources into AfCFTA rules, African states are signaling that access will increasingly be tied to continental integration and value capture. These moves are unfolding as demand for critical minerals expands.
According to the International Energy Agency, cobalt demand for batteries will rise 150% by 2030, while copper demand could double. Africa already supplies more than two-thirds of the world’s cobalt and half of its manganese, according to the African Development Bank. However, with lithium projects in Zimbabwe, Mali and Namibia ramping up, the continent is on track to be among the world’s top five suppliers by 2027. Foreign partners are adapting. Gulf states, China, the U.S. and Europe are all seeking entry, but their terms now reflect Africa’s repositioning.
Saudi Arabia has been in talks to acquire a minority stake in First Quantum’s copper and nickel assets in Zambia. Riyadh also hosted DRC officials who called for joint ventures to diversify away from China’s dominance. Qatar is weighing selective investments in Mauritania and Algeria, while the UAE is embedded in gold and bauxite corridors. But all face the same condition, Africa wants processing, not just extraction.
The fourth strategy is tougher negotiation. Zambia now ties new mining licenses to local smelting. The DRC is reviewing Chinese contracts signed under previous administrations. Zimbabwe has ordered foreign firms to submit beneficiation plans before expanding lithium operations. The fifth is mobilising African capital. Governments and regional financiers are co-investing in projects, reducing dependence on external funding.
Botswana’s sovereign wealth fund has taken mining stakes, while the Africa Finance Corporation is backing copper and bauxite ventures across West and Central Africa. By putting local money on the table, states are strengthening their hand.
These strategies are already reshaping global competition. The U.S., long behind China, is backing technology-driven ventures such as KoBold Metals’ artificial intelligence-powered exploration in the DRC. China, which controls around 80% of global refining, is expanding lithium refining in Zimbabwe and rare earth projects in Tanzania. Europe has tied its Critical Raw Materials Act to African supply agreements. According to Muyeka, in all these moves, the common denominator is Africa’s agency.
“Beneficiation laws, regional councils, AfCFTA leverage, tougher negotiations, local financing and AU frameworks are changing the continent’s role from supplier to rule-setter.”
According to the UN Economic Commission for Africa, if African states captured just 10% more value in cobalt and lithium chains, they could earn an extra US$11 billion annually by 2030. That figure underscores why the contest over Africa’s minerals is no longer just about access, but about who accepts Africa’s terms.
“What we most need now in Africa is more coordinated regulation through the African Union and other agencies, and ultimately deeper integration under AfCFTA,” Muyeka explained. “That is how the continent will turn global competition into long-term gain.”
bird story agency
