Fitch sees increased social instability in Nigeria with Tinubu win
Protests and social discontent are likely to ramp up in Africa’s most populous nation if Bola Tinubu, the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), wins the presidential election next year, according to an arm of global credit ratings agency, Fitch Solutions.
Victory for Tinubu, who Fitch has predicted would win the election next February, would end the recent trend of the presidency alternating between Muslims and Christians.
Since Nigeria’s return to democracy in 1999, there has been an informal agreement that resulted in the presidency alternating between Northern and Southern states as well as between Christians and Muslims.
“A win for Tinubu would break with this unwritten tradition and likely fuel sentiment of perceived marginalisation among Christians,” Fitch Solutions said in an October 26 report.
“In addition, Obi’s supporters – mostly young, urban voters – are likely to question the fairness of the electoral process, especially after recent polls have predicted a win for Obi.
“These dynamics are likely to engender political unrest following the February vote,” Fitch Solutions said.
As a result, Fitch Solutions revised down the Social Stability component of its proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) from 30.0 to 25.0 previously (scores out of 100; lower score implies higher risk). This brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI score from 46.3 to 45.0.
