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Analysis: MTN has an upside share price potential of 171%

2 years ago
in Business, Economy, Features, highlights, Home, home-news, latest News
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Analysis: MTN has an upside share price potential of 171%

Company Description

Scancom PLC, commonly known as MTN Ghana, is a public limited liability company first incorporated in Ghana in April 1994 and licensed by the NCA as a mobile telecommunications services’ operator.

MTN Ghana’s main revenue lines are airtime and subscription, interconnect and roaming, SMS, data, handset and accessories, mobile money, and value-added services.

MTN Ghana is currently the third most valuable stock on the GSE with a market capitalization of GH¢ 14.7 billion, which is about 21.9% of the entire Ghana Stock Exchange equity market.

MTN Ghana has a 52-week share price performance range from GH¢1.06 to GH¢1.20 and a total enterprise value of GH¢15.2 billion.

MTN Ghana has a fiscal year Gross Margin of 80% in 2022 and a current dividend yield of 10%.

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Performance History

GROWTH ANALYSIS

GH¢(Mil) FY2019FY2020FY2021FY20222023E
Revenue          5,182           6,033           7,723            9,916           11,702
% Growth23%16%28%28%18%
Cost of Sales        (1,237)        (1,377)        (1,624)         (1,752)          (2,857)
% Margin24%23%21%18%24%
Gross Profit          3,945           4,656           6,099            8,164             8,845
Gross Margins76%77%79%82%76%
Operating Profit          2,630           3,165           4,249            5,774             6,007
Operating Margin51%52%55%58%51%

POFITABILITY

KEY RATIOS

Key Ratios 202020212022
Current Ratio0.96x1.04x1.05x
Quick Ratio0.96x1.04x1.05x
Cash Conversion cycle296 days243 days331 days
Debt-to-Equity ratio3.26x3.02x2.86x

Market Comparison

MARKET COMPARISON       
CompanyTickerShare PriceMarket Cap(Mil)EBIT Margin(2021)
Total Ghana PLCTOTAL6.367124.68%
Benso Oil Palm PlantationBOPP10.6136947.70%
UnileverUNIL3.60225-8.30%
GCBGCB3.1583534.56%
Calbank PLCCAL0.5031345.85%
Average4.8449124.90%
Scancom PLCMTNGH1.2014,749 41.61%

Valuation

VALUATION HIGHLIGHTS

MTNGH has been effective at using debt to increase its profitability. This has helped the firm maintain low Weighted Average Cost of Capital in this current economic instability.

DISCOUNTED CASHFLOW MODEL

GH¢’000  20232024202520262027
Revenues11,702,186 13,809,970 16,297,405 19,232,873 22,697,075
NOPAT4,503,5055,314,6716,271,9437,401,6388,734,812
Unlevered Free Cashflows3,346,7474,715,3555,564,6796,566,9827,749,819
Adjusted EPS0.3660.4320.5100.6020.711
FCFF Per Share0.2720.3840.4530.5340.631

With the outstanding figures in the table above, the worth of MTNGH Share for its lifetime at a WACC of 17.51% and a long-term growth rate of 1.80% is GH₵3.25 which is above its trading price of GH₵1.20

Additionally, the one-year short-term target price is projected at GH¢1.27 from a forward EPS of 0.366

 

SCANCOM(MTN) PLC 
Equity Value       39,970,599
Shares Outstanding        12,290,474
Implied Share Price3.25
Share Price (21/03/2023)1.20
Upside171%
SHORT-TERM RECOMMENDATION
Forward EPS0.366
P/E3.46x
SHARE PRICE1.27
UPSIDE6%

Market & Economic Analysis

MARKET ANALYSIS

MTNGH share outperforms the Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index with a YTD percentage upside of 36.36% as against the GSE-CI Year-To-Date upside of 11.00%.

MTNGH is the most highly traded company on the Ghana Stock Exchange with more than 90% of the traded volume on the exchange. This makes trading MTNGH share more attractive and has less market risk exposure.

 

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS

GDP Growth: The full year GDP Growth in Ghana is expected to reach 2.80% by the end of 2023, according to Trading Economics global macro models. The Ghanaian economy is expected to bounce back quickly when the IMF deal pushes through.

Inflation: Inflation has slowed to 52.80% in February, 2023 as against the high of 53.60% in January, 2023.

This ease reflects the current stability of the cedi, the falling international oil prices and the BoG Gold for Oil initiative.

Government Debt: Public debt stock to GDP is expected to reach 86% by the end of 2023 according to Trading Economics global macro models. However, the successful exchange of government bonds for new bonds between the Government of Ghana and the domestic bondholders will help cool down the government huge debt obligations.

Implication

The IMF deal will force the government to cut down expenditure, encourage the growth in exports, and local production and consumption.

The Bank of Ghana is expected to cut the key monetary policy rate to help boost borrowing, production and investment to cause real growth in the economy.

Investors looking to diversify their portfolio will fall on equity investment which MTNGH has the best performance in terms of greater profitability and higher share performance with minimal risk.

Recommendation

I recommend a Long-term BUY position and a short-term BUY position for the shares of MTNGH at GH¢3.25 and GH¢1.27 respectively, above the current trading price of GH¢1.20 due to the efficient cost management structure, strong liquidity, greater profitability and the growing customer base.

Disclaimer: This document does not constitute an offer to buy or sell any securities, nor is it meant to encourage an offer to do so.  It is for educational purposes only. Before purchasing any security, investors are urged to consult with their respective investment houses for independent advice. This document’s facts and opinions were gathered from or arrived at after doing our best to rely on credible sources. Although great care has been taken in the preparation of this paper, the Young Investors Network, as well as any team member, make no guarantees as to the accuracy of the information included within. This report’s conclusions and projections are subject to change after publication at any moment without prior notice.

Young Investors Network (YIN) is a financial education organization with a commitment to educating the youth in financial literacy, business skills and dedicated to preparing generational investors. Its mission is to inspire the youth to be outstanding investors.

 

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