Angola set for first successive rate hike in almost a decade
Angola’s central bank is set to deliver its first back-to-back interest-rate hike in almost a decade to show its resolve to arrest persistently high inflation.
Five of six economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict a 100 basis-point increase in the key rate to 20% and one expects no change when Governor Manuel Tiago Dias announces the monetary policy committee’s decision on Friday at 4 p.m. in the capital, Luanda. That would take the policy rate to the highest level in almost two years.
“The Banco Nacional de Angola is expected to raise interest rates once again at its upcoming meeting,” said Tiago Dionisio, a chief economist at Eaglestone Advisory SA. “Additional monetary tightening measures will likely be required to contain further pressure on consumer prices and bring inflation on a downward trajectory.”
Inflation quickened to 28.2% last month — way above the central bank’s 19% target for the year — after a sharp drop in the local currency. The kwanza has lost about 37% of its value against the dollar over the past 12 months following a government decision last year to stop defending it.
Additional price pressures are expected to persist as Angola’s government continues to gradually remove fuel subsidies, according to Gerrit van Rooyen, economist at Oxford Economics Africa. Those subsidies cost Angola between $3 billion and $4 billion a year, according to Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa.
“We now expect inflation to peak at 31% year-on-year in June and moderate toward 23% year-on-year at the end of the year,” Van Rooyen said in a research note.
