As Arsenal lead the way again, is being top at Christmas a blessing or curse?
In most Premier League seasons Christmas Day falls between matchday 17 and 19, by which point the contenders have provided ample evidence of their strengths and weaknesses.
The most notable exceptions came in 2020-21, when the big day fell after matchday 14 due to the season’s delayed start after the COVID-disrupted previous campaign. Last term was also an odd affair, with the 2022 World Cup halting the domestic calendar between November 12 and Boxing Day.
As a result, the margin of a team’s advantage at Christmas is a much better indication of their likelihood to finish as champions than whether or not they were actually top.
In total, 16 teams have topped the tree and ended up as title winners, with Manchester United and Chelsea completing that particular double more times than any other team (5).
Arsenal’s drop off last season took the tally of squads that have failed to convert their advantage to 15 but the Gunners aren’t the worst offenders in this regard.
Liverpool have not won the league after being top at Christmas more times than any other club (5), two more than the Gunners.
To be fair to both clubs, the title race in each of their failures was relatively tight and even when there was a more sizeable gap, it came with mitigation. Take Mikel Arteta’s side last year for example, who beat Wolves 2-0 to go five points clear of Manchester City at the top.
The Gunners’ game first against City had been rearranged until much later in the campaign, at which point Pep Guardiola’s side displayed their superiority and overhauled the challengers after a 4-1 win at the Etihad.
Liverpool in 2021-22 had a two point advantage at the top, while in 2018-19 the gap was four points. The Reds began their unwanted hat-trick in 2013-14 when they sat above City in the league on goal difference on December 25.
The common denominator in all the overturns was the Cityzens. City have taken the mantle from their Manchester rivals since first winning the title in 2012.
Since then, they have won the league more times when not leading the pack at the unofficial halfway stage (4) than when they are (3).
In the Premier League’s first decade it was Sir Alex Ferguson’s United that were the division’s most menacing predator, coming back from a deficit to win the league five times.
Being top of the tree seemed to hold no relevance to the outcome in the first 10 years of the monied division as Norwich, Leeds, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Newcastle and United themselves squandered leads.
The Magpies most famously let a 10-point advantage slip through their grasp during the 1995-96 campaign under Kevin Keegan – the single biggest lead at that stage not to yield a title.
In fact, Newcastle hold the distinction of being the side to have topped the table at Christmas the most times without winning the division (2).
On the other end of the spectrum Arsene Wenger’s Gunners made up 13 points on United to earn the Frenchman the first of three top-flight titles in 1997-98.
Despite losing their last two games, Arsenal were able to pip their rivals to the title by one point having won ten matches in a row to drag themselves back into contention.
That success started a peculiar trend for the north London club. Arsenal have never won the Premier League when top at Christmas. Indeed, their three successes have come when in the chasing pack and they have fallen away each time they’ve topped the tree on December 25.
Their record stands in contrast to their London rivals Chelsea, who have only ever won the Premier League title when they have led the way.
Jose Mourinho’s dominant side of the 2004-05 and 2005-06 seasons enjoyed five and nine point leads and were more than able to press home their advantage in the second half of the campaign.
The Blues’ last title winners of 2016-17 were similarly comfortable during the festive period with a six point cushion ahead of the rest.
Chelsea are joined by Blackburn and Leicester as the only teams with a 100 per cent conversion rate, though the Championship sides have only topped the table on one occasion each compared to the Blues’ five.
When it comes to the biggest advantage on the big day, that honour is shared by the recent juggernauts of City and Liverpool in 2017-18 and 2019-20. Those sides ended their respective campaigns with 100 and 99 points so it’s little surprise they led the pack by 13 points apiece.
Over the years, a lead in excess of five points almost always results in May celebration. As previously mentioned, only Newcastle and Arsenal have failed to turn a lead that big into silverware.
Being top at Christmas was far more predictive in the second and third decades of the Premier league, with the leader only failing to win the title on four and three occasions.
But the division could be returning to the free-for-all that was commonplace in the 1990s. So, is being top at Christmas a blessing or a curse?
It certainly has been a curse for Arsenal, and more often than not for Liverpool also, especially when City are chasing. To provide some comfort to Gunners fans, no team has been top at Christmas in consecutive seasons and failed to win the title in either year.
So whatever happens in May history will be made.
