- Absa PMI Rebound Signals Relief for South Africa’s Manufacturers
South African manufacturing sentiment improved in April, as factory output and new sales orders rebounded after a weak first quarter, according to the latest Absa Purchasing Managers’ Index. The seasonally adjusted PMI, sponsored by South African bank Absa, rose to 52.6 in April from 49.0 in March, returning to expansion territory for the first time since September 2025, Reuters reported. A PMI reading above 50 signals expansion in business activity, while a reading below that level points to contraction.
The improvement suggests that South Africa’s manufacturing sector entered the second quarter in a stronger position, after subdued activity earlier in the year weighed on confidence and production.
Business activity increased to 52.8 in April from 46.1 in March, also moving back into expansionary territory. New sales orders rose even more sharply, jumping to 52.9 from 44.5, indicating a recovery in demand after a weak start to the year.
Absa, however, cautioned that part of the rebound may reflect front-loading of demand ahead of expected price increases, raising questions about whether the improvement can be sustained.
“Some of this improvement likely reflects front-loading of demand ahead of expected price increases, raising questions about the sustainability of the recovery,” Absa said, according to Reuters.
The April data therefore, indicates a fragile rather than decisive turnaround. While factories reported stronger output and orders, cost pressures remain a concern. Input costs were pushed higher by a weaker rand and rising international oil prices, both of which could feed into producer prices and margins if sustained.
Expected business conditions improved slightly during the month but remained below the 50-point mark, suggesting that manufacturers remain cautious about the outlook.
For Africa’s most industrialised economy, the April PMI rebound is encouraging, but not yet conclusive. South Africa’s manufacturing sector continues to face structural constraints, including power reliability concerns, logistics bottlenecks, weak domestic demand and exposure to currency and fuel price volatility.
The return of the PMI to growth territory gives policymakers and investors some evidence that factory activity is recovering. But the persistence of weak confidence and higher input costs means the sector’s recovery remains vulnerable.
For now, South Africa’s factories are recovering after a difficult first quarter. The bigger test will be whether stronger orders translate into sustained production, investment and employment gains in the months ahead.
