BoG forecasts per tonne price of cocoa between $4,882 and $4,922
According to the Bank of Ghana’s Commodity Price Outlook, cocoa prices are forecast to range between $4,882 and $4,922 per tonne in March 2024.
The projection is premised on tight supplies and adverse weather conditions in Cote d’Ivoire and Ghana, which is threatening the April-to-September 2023 mid-crop year.
Cocoa extended the price gains by 4.9% to reach $4,235.6 per tonne in December 2023, underscored by tightening supplies and expectation of a third successive deficit in the current crop season.
Compared to a year earlier, cocoa prices have soared by over 66.0%, mainly due to bad weather conditions, black pod disease and inadequate fertilizers, which have all combined to weaken supply of the commodity.
In the case of Ghana, cocoa production for the 2023/24 season could fall short by an estimated 40% of the 820,000 metric tons target for the crop season.
Adverse weather conditions, a surge in smuggling activities, the pervasive impact of illegal gold mining and the prevalence of the cocoa swollen shoot disease are among the key factors contributing to the anticipated decline in the country’s production.
However, there are plans by COCOBOD to use part of a $200 million World Bank loan to rehabilitate plantations destroyed by the cocoa swollen shoot virus, which causes drops in yields and kills trees.
The disease alone has wiped off about 500,000 hectares of farmlands and reduced cocoa output for the 2023/2024 crop season.
