Robust cedi performance to keep prices of diesel and petrol stable in first-pricing window of June
Consumers can expect a period of stability in petrol and diesel prices, while the cost of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) is projected to witness a decline of approximately 5%. These forecasts come in light of the Institute for Energy Security’s (IES) analysis, which attributes the expected trends to the cedi’s robust performance on the domestic forex market and a recent drop in the international LPG prices, despite a surge in global prices of liquid products (diesel and petrol).
A thorough review of prices conducted by the IES, utilizing the data from the Global Standard & Poor (S&P) Platts platform, reveals that over the past two weeks, the prices of gasoline (petrol) and gasoil (diesel) experienced an upward trajectory of 4.20% and 2.70%, respectively. Conversely, the price of LPG witnessed a commendable decrease of 5.80%, reflecting the impact of the international market trends on this particular fuel type.
One of the key contributing factors to the stability in petrol and diesel prices is the impressive gain of the Ghana cedi against the U.S. dollar, which saw a remarkable appreciation of 5.42% during the observed two-week trading period on the domestic forex market. This positive performance not only enhances the purchasing power of Ghanaian consumers but also contributes to the overall stability of fuel prices.
Analyzing the local fuel market performance, the IES identified that during the second pricing window in May 2023, ex-pump prices experienced an average decrease of 3% for both petrol and diesel. Notably, most Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) maintained uniform prices for these two fuel types within the pricing window. As a result, the national average price per liter for petrol settled at GH¢11.90, while LPG was priced at approximately ¢13 per kilogram.
Turning our attention to the global oil market, the price of Brent crude oil remained below the $80 per barrel mark during the preceding two weeks. The average price per barrel in this period hovered around $75.90, indicating a steady and relatively affordable range. Analysts have observed that crude oil prices have frequently touched multi-year lows in recent months, emphasizing the volatile nature of this critical commodity.
It is noteworthy that these price trends reflect the current global dynamics and their impact on the Ghanaian fuel market. While petrol and diesel prices are expected to remain stable, the decline in LPG prices provides some relief for consumers, especially those reliant on this fuel type for household and commercial purposes.
These market dynamics present both challenges and opportunities for stakeholders within the fuel industry. Oil Marketing Companies must navigate the delicate balance between ensuring profitability and meeting consumer demands, particularly in the context of shifting international market forces.
Ghana’s fuel market anticipates a period of stability in petrol and diesel prices, accompanied by a projected decrease in LPG prices. The Ghana cedi’s strong performance and the international LPG market trends play instrumental roles in shaping these forecasts. With Brent crude oil prices trading below $80 per barrel and frequently reaching multi-year lows, global dynamics continue to influence the Ghanaian fuel market, requiring vigilance and adaptability from industry participants.
