Cedi to End 2025 at GHS 15.50 to the Dollar Despite Current Strength – Fitch Solutions Forecasts
UK-based research firm, Fitch Solutions, has projected that the Ghana cedi will end 2025 at GHS 15.50 to the US dollar, with an annual average of GHS 15.30, despite the local currency’s current strong rally against the greenback.
The projection, published in its latest report titled “High Gold Prices Will Shield Ghanaian Economy From Tariff Fallout”, is significantly higher than the GHS 14-year-end forecast by Absa Bank. The cedi began the year at GHS 15.83 to the dollar.
Fitch Solutions noted that while elevated global gold prices and improved external conditions will support the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) efforts to stabilise the cedi in the short term, the currency will still face depreciation pressures as the year progresses.
“We expect the BoG to focus on keeping the cedi stable, facilitated by elevated gold prices,” the report stated. “Amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, market expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve, and continued geopolitical tensions, our commodities team forecasts that gold prices will average a record US$3,100 per ounce this year—up 29.7% from 2024.”
According to the report, the high gold prices, coupled with a reduced energy import bill due to falling global oil prices, will boost Ghana’s external sector, leading to a current account surplus of 6.9% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—the highest in the country’s history.
Fitch also anticipates that Ghana’s gross international reserves will rise significantly from $6.4 billion to $11.5 billion by the end of 2025, providing the central bank with the necessary buffer to cushion the cedi against global shocks.
“The strengthened external position will enable the BoG to mitigate any bouts of cedi volatility stemming from global risk-off sentiment,” the report noted.
Cedi Appreciation Continues on Retail Market
The report comes as the Ghana cedi continues to record strong gains against the US dollar on the retail market, making it the world’s best-performing currency so far in 2025. As of Monday, May 19, 2025, the cedi had appreciated by 17.17% year-to-date, trading at GHS 13.50 to the dollar.
Last week alone, the cedi strengthened by 2.3% week-on-week against the dollar, supported by improved foreign inflows, declining inflation, and increased investor confidence in the economy.
Analysts attribute the local currency’s appreciation to tight monetary policy, prudent fiscal management, improved gold-for-reserves performance, and a rebound in foreign reserves, which recently hit record levels.
Despite these gains, Fitch Solutions’ outlook suggests that maintaining the cedi’s strength throughout the year will be a challenge, as fiscal pressures, delayed payments, and external headwinds could weaken the currency toward the end of the year.
