Ghana’s 2026 Budget: From Recovery to Reset?
On Thursday, the Finance Minister Dr. Cassiel Ato Forson will be presenting the 2026 National Budget in parliament for approval. After two years of very challenging reform, Inflation skyrocketing, a debt restructuring that did not sit well with the public, and currency volatility, businesses and households are eager to know whether
“2026 will be the year the economy finally turns the corner”
The early indicators signal a strong yes but with a caveat: Discipline should be the government’s non-negotiable trait
Over the past three years, the focus of the national budget has been to stay afloat. Government has spent a lot of time threading in the midst of high tides, from stabilising the cedi, fighting inflation to restructuring debt and negotiating tirelessly with our creditors. I believe the year ahead should have a different purpose which is “To MOVE Ghana from emergency mode to a clear acceleration path.” Now why is this important? Below are the facts
- Inflation dropped from mid-20% levels to 8% in just 10 months, marking the lowest drop in the past four years and is expect to stay within the single digits by YE 2025
- Gross International Reserves now stand at ~US$10.7bn (4.5 months import cover) on the back of strong gold inflows and reforms
- GDP growth for 1H25 recorded 6.3% expected to end at between 5.7% and 6.2% by YE 2025, signalling strong economic rebound and These KPIs for any government signal
These indicators for any government show the outcome of fiscal tightening and strict monetary policy adherence. Therefore, I believe the 2026 budget must show how we intend to protect this. Below are some key areas the budget must address and what the citizens of Ghana will be looking out for
- A Disciplined approach to spending must anchor the budget
Ghana and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have agreed to a 1.5% of GDP primary surplus target for government in 2026. This simply means that the government needs to spend less than they are earning, after interest payments are paid. If the Government is able to achieve this, we should see less Government borrowing, reducing debt accumulation, easing pressures on the Cedi to support exchange rate stability and interest rates dislocation (arbitrage between GRR, T-bill and OMO) gradually normalizing to unlock private sector credit growth. What we expect is a clear plan on how government will intend to spend less than they are generating. Public financial discipline is non-negotiable and what drives sustained recovery against returning to crisis
- Funding should not rely on Expensive Borrowing
The president did say, and analysts align to that fact that Ghana should avoid rushing back to Eurobond and the international market. The country should consider shifting focus to cheaper funding and patient capital sources. Partnering with Multilateral and Development Finance institutions (DFIs) like World Bank, AfDB, Afrieximbank, BADEA just to mention a few, with longer repayment periods and lower interest rates, will form a strong foundation for external financing. Project financing, Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs), even issuance of commercial bonds and SPVs for infrastructure projects, to attract private investments will help rather than borrowing for every project. Export credit financing Bilateral lenders will finance projects linked to measurable outcomes. This will limit pressure on the national budget.
We should capitalize on the the IMF supervision not to be seen as just a means to get more credit but giving Ghana credibility. That credibility unlocks other sources of affordable capital
- Domestic Bond Issuance
Domestic bond issuance should be predictable and transparent especially after the Domestic Debt Exchange Programme (DDEP), to rebuild investor confidence.
We expect a strategic and proactive approach to communicate bond issuance so investors can plan. Government should consider more medium-term bonds (2–7 years) to reduce the pressure of constant refinancing. Government need to tell us how they will attract greater participation from pension funds and retail investors, including digital platforms.
Investors will expect “No coercion. No surprises. Allowing market to set the price.” Predictability attracts confidence, and confidence will attract capital and investments.
- Tax reforms MUST forcus on widening the net and not increasing or adding new rates
The IMF estimates Ghana loses up to 3% of GDP every year through tax exemptions and inefficiencies. The answer is not to tax compliant businesses more but to formalize and broaden the base and this has been a consistent ask ever since budget statements have been read in Parliament. Rather than introducing new taxes, the budget should focus on simplifying existing taxes, especially VAT. We want to see how the government plans to remove unnecessary add-on levies like the remaining COVID-19 levy components which was celebrated in the mid-year budget review. Reduce exemptions and improve compliance.
- REVIVE the Sinking Fund
This is a smart move, and we expect Government to revive the Sinking Fund and should be solely used for external debt repayment.
Key questions that we need the finance minister to address
- What will go into it?
- Automatic inflows from oil and mineral revenue?
- What will it be used for?
- Preferably for bond buybacks and debt maturities ONLY?
- Who will check the government
- Transparent reporting to Parliament?
A functioning sinking fund will prevent future debt shocks and protect the cedi when large payments fall due (NB: we expect large payment of ~GHS50bn in 2027 and 2028). This budget must demonstrate that Ghana is finally shifting from drowning to swimming. It is safe to say that we are no longer in crisis but in recovery, and this budget should seek to protect that recovery through discipline, transparency and smarter financing.
To conclude Ghana is progressing and global investors are paying critical attention. The Latest RMB Where to Invest in Africa (2025/2026) report places Ghana among the continent’s top six investment destinations, ahead for noticeable countries like Algeria and Senegal. RMB says post-IMF recovery in Ghana has been characterized by a stabilised currency, falling inflation, and renewed fiscal discipline which has made the country one of Africa’s shining successes.
The report points out that Africa’s investment narrative is shifting from aid to trade and investment, and that Ghana’s improving fundamentals have positioned it at the centre of that shift. RMB’s Chief Economist, Isaah Mhlanga, added that Africa’s next frontier of growth will focus on countries with “policy credibility, currency stability, and export diversification.” Ghana fits the bill.
If Government continues along this tangent i.e spending tight, avoids expensive borrowing, and simplifies taxes, 2026 and beyond could make Ghana the place to be.
