Cocoa: Central Bank forecasts supply deficit in 2021/22 crop season
The Bank of Ghana is forecasting a supply deficit for the cocoa market in the ongoing 2021/22 season with cocoa prices forecast to average about $2,450 in 2022, before increasing to $2,500 in 2023.
The outlook, it said, stems from some production challenges in Ghana notwithstanding good production prospects in the largest grower, Côte d’Ivoire.
In its July 2022 Monetary Policy Report, the Central Bank said crude oil price will average $108 per barrel.
“Analysts project crude oil prices to average about $108 per barrel for the second half of 2022, lower than current prices.”
“The main headwinds include low oil inventories and the sanctions imposed on Russian oil, which are set to come into force at the end of the year”, it added.
It also pointed out that gold is projected to stabilise around $1,880 per fine ounce in 2022, before falling to $1,700 per fine ounce in 2023.
“Weighing on the outlook for gold is the effect of a stronger U.S. dollar”, it added.
Commodity Price Trends
Cocoa futures suffered its fourth consecutive loss into the month of June 2022.
The bean closed the month at $2,428.38 per tonne, compared to the $2,484.48 per tonne recorded in the month of May 2022, representing a monthly loss of 2.3%.
Ample rain and good soil moisture in most cocoa-growing regions created sentiments of higher crop output. From January to date, the bean has lost 2.16% in prices.
Also, Brent crude oil gained 5.1% to settle at an average price of $117.22 per barrel in June 2022, compared to $111.55 per barrel in the previous month.
Rising U.S. gasoline demand and tight oil supplies from OPEC contributed to the gain.
From January to date, the crude oil price has gained 56.71%. Compared to same period last year, crude oil prices have increased by 59.82%, owing mainly to the geopolitical tension between Russia and Ukraine.
Elsewhere, spot gold inched lower for the third consecutive month into June 2022.
It lost about 0.7% to end the month at $1,837.07 per fine ounce, compared to $1,849.50 recorded in May 2022.
From year to date, the metal has gained 0.10%, but 2.58% year-on-year.
