Cocoa: Ghana Likely to Lose “World’s Second Largest Producer” Title to Ecuador
Ecuador is on track to surpass Ghana as the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, with output expected to exceed 650,000 metric tonnes in the 2026/27 season, according to the country’s cocoa exporters association.
Chairman of Anecacao, Iván Ontaneda, told Reuters that sustained investment by farmers, supported by both the public and private sectors, has lifted yields and strengthened production. “Ecuador’s production has shown steady growth for years. Ghana’s production has been volatile,” Ontaneda remarked.
The bullish outlook follows last year’s sharp surge in global cocoa prices, which more than doubled to record highs above US$12,000 a tonne after failed harvests and disease outbreaks in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together supply around half of the world’s cocoa. While prices have since retreated by a third, they remain historically elevated, encouraging renewed planting and farm investments in South America.
Ecuadorian farmers benefit from stronger price pass-throughs, earning about 90% of the world market price compared with 60–70% for producers in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. This price advantage, combined with higher yields, has made Ecuador increasingly competitive. Cocoa yields in the country average 800kg per hectare, compared to under 500kg per hectare across West Africa.
A Reuters poll earlier this month forecast Ghana’s output at just 600,000 tonnes for the 2025/26 season, constrained by illegal mining encroachments, declining soil fertility, and the spread of swollen shoot disease. By contrast, Ecuador expects to produce more than 570,000 tonnes in 2025/26 and projects output of 800,000 tonnes by the end of the decade.
Ecuador’s cocoa industry also benefits from agroforestry practices, with cocoa cultivated alongside shade trees, coffee, plantains and fruit trees—systems that help preserve biodiversity and limit the spread of crop diseases associated with monoculture farming.
