Deloitte Flags Revenue Risks, Calls for Rigorous Implementation of 2026 Tax Reforms
Deloitte has cautioned that Ghana’s ability to achieve its 2026 revenue target will hinge heavily on the government’s commitment to fully implementing planned tax reforms, strengthening tax administration, and sustaining macroeconomic stability. The firm, in its analysis of the 2026 Budget Statement, noted that reducing the cost of doing business and maintaining responsive policy measures will also be critical, particularly as major VAT reforms take effect next year.
According to Deloitte, the government’s revenue performance in 2025 revealed significant weaknesses across key tax handles. PAYE, corporate income tax, VAT, excise duties, the growth and sustainability levy, and import duties all recorded shortfalls, with total revenue and grants for the first three quarters reaching GH¢154.9 billion – 4.7% below the GH¢162.6 billion target. The consultancy observed that subdued import activity and shifts in consumption patterns driven by ongoing disinflation contributed to the underperformance.
Deloitte highlighted that audit and enforcement mechanisms must be strengthened urgently to address loopholes that continue to undermine revenue mobilisation. “Government’s reported revenue underperformance for 2025 requires further diagnosis to understand the root causes and to recommend measures to reverse this trend,” the firm indicated.
The analysis also underscored vulnerabilities in the oil and gas sector. Over the first three quarters of 2025, government receipts from upstream petroleum activities amounted to GH¢5.9 billion, significantly below the GH¢12.4 billion target, a 52.2% shortfall. Deloitte attributed this to the combined effects of lower global oil prices, reduced domestic production, and the dampening impact of the cedi’s appreciation on oil-linked inflows. The firm advised government to consider targeted incentives to spur production and investment, as well as possible hedging strategies to mitigate exposure to price volatility.
On the revenue outlook, total revenue and grants for 2026 are projected at GH¢268.1 billion, up from the 2025 budgeted GH¢229.9 billion. Tax revenue, estimated at GH¢223.9 billion, is expected to form 83.5% of the total. Deloitte noted that this projection is underpinned by enhanced revenue measures expected to yield an additional 0.8% of GDP. Non-tax revenue is projected at GH¢26.7 billion, representing 10% of domestic revenue.
Deloitte further described the government’s VAT reform as a “sound policy direction,” reflecting concerns raised by businesses during the National Economic Forum and other consultations. However, it stressed that its success will depend on broadening the tax base, improving administrative efficiency, easing compliance procedures, and maintaining strict enforcement. These measures, it said, will be essential to safeguarding revenue and supporting Ghana’s economic transformation agenda.
The firm also assessed the Modified Taxation Scheme, designed to formalise SMEs and expand the tax net and noted its limited impact due to high informality and low taxpayer awareness. Deloitte recommended intensified taxpayer education, streamlined digital tax platforms, and consistent stakeholder engagement to support wider adoption.
Overall, Deloitte noted that while government has outlined measures to boost revenue, such as tightening exemptions, enforcing tax arrears, and reforming VAT, effective implementation will be crucial to reversing the persistent revenue gaps and restoring fiscal stability.
