Headline Inflation Expected to Ease to 19% in September – IC Research Predicts
Inflation in Ghana is forecast to decline to 19.0% year-on-year in September 2024, according to a report by IC Research.
This would mark a continuation of the country’s disinflationary trend, following a surprise drop to 20.4% in August, the lowest level since March 2022.
The market had anticipated a rise to 22.8% in August, but the actual figure came in significantly below expectations.
However, IC Research predicts a month-on-month inflation increase to 0.7% for September, following a 0.7% decline in August, driven largely by a 2.2% deflation in food prices.
“Our main surprise relates to the month-on-month contraction in the CPI level, which we historically expected to occur in September,” the report stated, citing shifting seasonal patterns and a year-on-year deflation in several food categories as key factors behind the unexpected drop.
This marks the fifth consecutive month of easing inflation, a trend supported by lower energy prices, improved foreign exchange stability, and strong agricultural output.
IC Research remains cautiously optimistic about continued disinflation but warned that potential food price shocks and demand pressures related to upcoming elections could present risks to this outlook.
