Deloitte Projects Ghana’s Economic Growth to Rise to 5.9% in 2026
Deloitte has projected Ghana’s economy to grow by 5.9 per cent in 2026, up from the 5.5 per cent recorded in 2025, as stronger exports and key government initiatives underpin the growth outlook.
In its Global Economic Outlook 2026, the professional services firm said the expected expansion will be driven largely by improved export performance following the development of the Bibiani gold mine in western Ghana, alongside policy interventions such as the 24-hour Economy Programme and the Accelerated Export Development Programme.
By contrast, Deloitte maintained its growth forecast for Nigeria at 4.1 per cent in 2026, unchanged from the previous year.
Despite the positive outlook for Ghana, Deloitte cautioned that downside risks remain. These include fluctuations in cocoa production due to climate-related events, the spread of the swollen shoot virus, smuggling activities, as well as volatility in global commodity prices, all of which could weigh on growth prospects.
The report noted that Ghana recorded real GDP growth of 6.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2025, driven mainly by the Fishing sector, which expanded by 16.4 per cent. This was followed by Information and Communication Technology, which grew by 13.1 per cent, and Finance and Insurance, which expanded by 9.3 per cent.
On inflation, Deloitte observed that Ghana returned to single-digit inflation in November 2025, recording 6.3 per cent after nearly four years of double-digit inflation. The firm attributed the disinflation to a stronger cedi, declining non-food prices and easing supply-side pressures.
However, it warned that inflation risks persist. “Potential risks to Ghana’s inflation outlook include higher tariffs on utilities such as electricity and water, and persistently high domestic food prices,” Deloitte stated.
Interest Rates
The report also highlighted recent monetary policy developments, noting that the Bank of Ghana implemented a cumulative 1,000-basis-point cut in its monetary policy rate in 2025 as it resumed easing.
Deloitte projected further rate cuts, with the policy rate expected to decline to about 17 per cent by the end of 2026. It cautioned, however, that while lower rates could ease financing constraints and stimulate credit growth and domestic demand, excessive easing could undermine the gains made in inflation control.
Cedi Performance
On the exchange rate, Deloitte said the cedi strengthened by more than 40 per cent in the first nine months of 2025 to an average of about GH¢13 per US dollar in the retail market. This performance was supported by higher gold revenues, frequent Bank of Ghana interventions, successful debt restructuring and initiatives such as the Ghana Gold Board.
Based on these dynamics, the firm projected the cedi to average GH¢13.01 to the US dollar in 2026.
Nevertheless, Deloitte warned that renewed monetary easing could reverse some of the currency’s recent gains, particularly if global uncertainty declines and demand for gold weakens.
