Deutsche Bank Lifts Gold Price Forecast to $4,000
Deutsche Bank has raised its 2026 gold price forecast to $4,000/oz., citing continued central bank demand, a falling US dollar and rising uncertainty over the Federal Reserve’s independence.
In a note to clients, analysts led by Michael Hsueh said that the recent rally in gold still has “further headroom to run,” lifting their previous forecast of $3,700 by a further $300 (or 8%) on average for next year.
The team pointed to macroeconomic volatility and political developments in the US, highlighting uncertainty created by changes in the composition of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and US President Donald Trump’s repeated attempts to interfere with the Fed’s decisions.
These dynamics, the analysts said, could influence how the US central bank adjusts its policy tools in the face of shifting economic conditions next year.
The German bank also emphasized the role of official sector buying in supporting prices. Central banks are currently acquiring gold at roughly double the pace seen between 2011 and 2021, with China being the largest contributor, it noted.
Gold has been on a tear throughout the year, surging about 41% year-to-date and recently breaking through the $3,700 mark for the first time ever.
The rally has even outpaced gains in major asset classes like the S&P 500 and pushed bullion beyond its inflation-adjusted peak from 1980. A weakening dollar—now at its lowest levels since July—also helped propel prices.
While the long-term outlook remains bullish, Deutsche Bank also flagged several possible headwinds. These include strong equity market performance that may reduce safe-haven demand, increased clarity around Trump’s trade policies and potential changes in US immigration enforcement, which could alter labor market dynamics.
Earlier this month, Goldman Sachs issued an even more aggressive projection, suggesting that gold could approach $5,000 per ounce if just 1% of privately held US Treasuries were reallocated into the metal.
