Global Cocoa Prices to Decline by Over 50% in 2026 – World Bank Projects
Global cocoa prices are set to decline markedly in 2026 after scaling record highs in recent years, according to the latest Commodity Markets Outlook published by the World Bank.
The report estimates that cocoa prices will fall from about US$7.80 per kilogram in 2025 to roughly US$3.80 per kilogram in 2026, representing a 51.3 per cent drop. Prices are, however, expected to rebound slightly to around US$4.20 per kilogram in 2027.
The projected decline is largely attributed to an anticipated recovery in global supply following severe shortages that drove prices upward over the past two years.
This outlook forms part of the April 2026 edition of the Commodity Markets Outlook, which signals a broader easing in beverage commodity prices. The beverage price index, which includes cocoa and coffee, is forecast to decline considerably in 2026 after rising strongly in 2024 and 2025.
According to the World Bank, cocoa was among the commodities that recorded significant price increases during the recent supply disruptions.
Nonetheless, improved production conditions and gradual normalisation in global supply chains are expected to reduce upward price pressures going forward.
Even with the expected drop, cocoa prices are projected to remain relatively high compared to historical levels, reflecting ongoing volatility in agricultural commodity markets.
For major cocoa-producing countries such as Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire, which together account for a substantial share of global output, the anticipated price decline could affect export earnings and farmer incomes, particularly if production recovers strongly.
The report also highlights that commodity markets will continue to be influenced by global economic conditions, geopolitical risks and weather-related shocks that impact agricultural supply.
