Cedi Forecasted To End 2024 At Circa GHS 16
The Ghanaian cedi is projected to close the year at 15.97 per dollar, marginally weaker than its current level of 15.63, according to Oyinkansola Samuel, an analyst at FirstRand Ltd.’s RMB Nigeria unit.
This forecast comes after the currency has already shed approximately 23% of its value against the U.S. dollar, making it the fifth-worst performing currency tracked by Bloomberg in 2024.
Analysts suggest that, following steep declines earlier in the year, the cedi is expected to experience only modest weakening ahead of the December elections.
The currency has been under pressure due to a poor cocoa crop—an essential source of foreign exchange for Ghana—and lingering investor concerns during prolonged debt restructuring talks, which only reached key milestones in July.
Samuel noted that corporate demand for dollars continues to exceed supply, which could maintain downward pressure on the cedi. However, she expects the pace of depreciation to slow as multilateral disbursements and increased reserve accumulation improve market sentiment.
Ghana’s gross international reserves rose to $6.9 billion by the end of June, up from $5.3 billion a year earlier. The Bank of Ghana has kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 29%, citing ongoing exchange-rate pressures.
The central bank’s stance, coupled with expected inflows from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and other multilateral lenders, could provide further support to the currency.
However, the upcoming elections in December, traditionally a period of heightened spending, are likely to increase demand for the U.S. dollar locally.
Ghana has already secured $1.6 billion under its $3 billion IMF bailout package, with an additional $360 million expected in the fourth quarter. The World Bank has also committed $900 million in resilient recovery financing, of which $300 million has been disbursed.
Samir Gadio, head of Africa strategy at Standard Chartered Bank, noted that while the imbalance between foreign exchange demand and supply remains, it has eased somewhat.
He anticipates that cedi depreciation could slow, supported by improved market sentiment, ongoing debt restructuring efforts, and the upcoming cocoa pre-export financing facility. Ghana is aiming to secure $1.5 billion in syndicated loans for cocoa purchases for the 2024-2025 season, though uncertainty over the harvest may impact this target.
