EPL final day: Title race, European places & relegation – What’s left to decide
With the Premier League reaching its conclusion on Sunday, there’s plenty to still be decided – including the title, European places and several individual awards.
Man City or Arsenal – who will win the title?
Manchester City moved two points clear at the top of the table with a 2-0 win at Tottenham on Tuesday, meaning the champions are just one win from claiming a record fourth successive Premier League title.
Pep Guardiola’s side host West Ham on the final day but, if they slip up, Arsenal are waiting in the wings, with the Gunners two points behind their title rivals and hosting Everton.
Arsenal must win to have any chance of winning their first title in 20 years. Should they do so and City draw with West Ham, the destination of the trophy will be decided by goal difference, with Arsenal currently on +61 compared to City’s +60.
If the sides are also level on goal difference, the title will come down to goals scored. City lead that tie-breaker, with 93 goals scored compared to Arsenal’s 89.
Should City lose to West Ham, an Arsenal win would ensure the title heads to the Emirates.
What does the supercomputer say?
Man City’s title chances jumped 25 per cent, up to 84 per cent, after their win at Tottenham, while Arsenal’s chances tumbled by the same amount to 16 per cent, according to Opta.
European places up for grabs
Man City, Arsenal, Liverpool and Aston Villa have secured Champions League football but the Europa League and Conference League places are still up for grabs.
As it stands, a fifth-place finish secures Europa League qualification – and that will be guaranteed by Tottenham if they avoid defeat at relegated Sheffield United on Sunday.
However, if Spurs lose at Bramall Lane, Chelsea – who are the only side able to catch Spurs – will move into fifth if they beat Bournemouth at home.
Mauricio Pochettino’s side are currently sixth, meaning they will play in the Europa Conference League as it stands. Chelsea will secure sixth if they do not lose to Bournemouth.
But if the Cherries win at Stamford Bridge, Newcastle will move into sixth if they win at Brentford.
Manchester United are level on points with the Magpies but are unlikely to be able to move above Chelsea due to their inferior goal difference.
But there’s a twist – and it all depends on the winners of the FA Cup, who will also be handed a Europa League place – with City playing United at Wembley on Saturday May 25.
If City win the FA Cup – and given City have guaranteed Champions League football – their Europa League place will go to the team finishing sixth in the Premier League.
As a result, the Conference League place will go to the side finishing seventh – currently Newcastle, although United will move above them if they win at Brighton and Eddie Howe’s side slip up against Brentford.
But if United win the FA Cup, they will play in the Europa League. In that scenario, the team finishing sixth would remain in the Conference League.
Isn’t relegation already decided?
Sheffield United and Burnley will return to the Championship after just one season in the top flight, and they are almost certainly going to be joined by Luton.
The Hatters are three points behind Nottingham Forest but have a -31 goal difference compared to Nuno Espirito Santo’s side’s total of -19.
To survive, Luton would need to beat Fulham at home, hope Forest lose at Burnley – and engineer a goal difference swing of 12.
What about the individual awards?
The Golden Boot should be a formality for Erling Haaland, who is on 27 goals for City – five clear of Chelsea’s Cole Palmer.
Ollie Watkins is likely to finish top of the assist charts, with the Aston Villa striker on 13. Palmer, Kevin De Bruyne, Kieran Trippier, Mohamed Salah, Anthony Gordon, Pascal Gross and Morgan Gibbs-White are tied in second with 10.
In terms of goal involvements – goals and assists combined – Palmer, Watkins and Haaland are all tied on 32.
Arsenal’s David Raya has already won the Golden Glove with 16 clean sheets. Everton’s Jordan Pickford will finish second with 13.
Remarkably, Andre Onana is set to end the season with the most saves of any goalkeeper. The Man Utd stopper has 147, with Luton’s Thomas Kaminski on 143.
