Fitch Revises End-2025 Cedi Forecast to GHS13/$1 on Back of Strong Currency Gains, Easing Inflation Outlook
Fitch Solutions has significantly revised its end-2025 forecast for the Ghanaian cedi to GHS13.0/USD, down from its earlier projection of GHS15.5/USD, following a sharp appreciation of the currency in recent weeks.
According to the research firm, the cedi has appreciated by 30% between late April and May 2025, buoyed primarily by stronger global gold prices. As a result, Fitch now projects the local currency to appreciate by 12.9% in 2025, up from GHS14.7/USD at the end of 2024.
The firmer exchange rate, Fitch explains, will ease inflationary pressures and provide room for the Bank of Ghana (BoG) to pivot towards monetary easing in the second half of the year.
Given Ghana’s status as a net importer of key consumer goods—including fuel, cereals, pharmaceuticals, and plastics—a stronger cedi will have a notable disinflationary effect, particularly on imported goods.
Although the BoG raised its policy rate by 100 basis points in March 2025 to 28.00% in response to inflationary stickiness early in the year, Fitch expects the central bank to reverse course as price pressures subside. It forecasts a cumulative 200 basis points in rate cuts in H2 2025, bringing the policy rate to 26.00% by year-end.
On the inflation front, Fitch notes that headline inflation has begun to ease after a sticky start to the year. April 2025 inflation stood at 21.5% year-on-year, down from 23.5% in January.
Inflation is projected to average 18.0% for 2025 and end the year at 13.1%, trending closer to the pre-pandemic average of 12.4% recorded between 2015 and 2019.
The decline in inflation, together with cedi appreciation and expected policy easing, is expected to boost household purchasing power and support a faster pace of consumer spending growth over the remainder of the year.
