Fitch Solutions Projects Slight Weakening of Cedi by End-2025
Fitch Solutions is projecting a marginal weakening of the Ghana cedi against the US dollar before the end of 2025, despite the local currency’s strong performance so far this year.
The cedi has appreciated by over 29% against the dollar on the retail market since the beginning of the year and is on course to record its first-ever annual appreciation against the greenback. It is currently trading at GH¢12.00 to a dollar at the forex bureau and GH¢10.92 on the interbank market.
In its latest Sub-Saharan Africa Currency Outlook, the UK-based research firm noted that most major currencies in the region are expected to remain broadly stable through the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026, extending the relative calm observed throughout the year.
“We expect most major Sub-Saharan African currencies to remain broadly stable through quarter 4 2025 and into 2026, extending the calm observed year-to-date. Indeed, we anticipate only a slight weakening of the Ghana cedi, Zambia kwacha, Nigeria naira and South Africa rand by the end of 2025,” Fitch Solutions stated.
Fitch Solutions forecasts an 8% depreciation of the cedi by the end of 2026, estimating an exchange rate of about GH¢11.70 to the US dollar on the interbank market.
“While modest depreciation against the US dollar is likely in the coming quarters, currencies will remain far more stable than during the volatility experienced in 2023 and 2024,” it added.
The firm attributes the relative stability of African currencies to softer movements in the US dollar and increased investor appetite for emerging market assets.
“We expect continued softness in the US dollar and robust risk appetite for emerging market currencies to add tailwinds to Sub-Saharan Africa forex,” Fitch explained.
It also highlighted that global gold prices will remain elevated due to US policy uncertainty, expected interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and persistent geopolitical risks.
However, Fitch noted that stronger foreign reserves supported by higher gold revenues, ongoing Bank of Ghana interventions, and the need to protect export competitiveness will moderate any prolonged appreciation of the cedi.
