Former Economic Advisor Questions Realism of Government’s 2026 Revenue and Expenditure Targets
Former Economic Advisor to ex-Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia and MP for Walewale, Dr Mahama Abdul-Kabiru, has cast doubt over the credibility of the revenue and expenditure targets outlined in the 2026 Budget, warning that government’s inability to meet more than half of its 2025 targets raises serious concerns about next year’s projections.
Speaking on Citi TV’s Point of View on Monday, November 17, 2025, Dr Abdul-Kabiru argued that the targets set for 2026 lack firm justification, especially when government’s 2025 performance provides little evidence of improved execution capacity.
“The finance minister gave us some targets, but he missed more than 50 percent of the targets set in 2025,” he remarked. “So setting new targets in 2026 raises questions about whether they are achievable, irrespective of how realistic they may look.”
Revenue Target Described as “Unrealistic”
Dr Abdul-Kabiru was particularly critical of government’s plan to raise GH₵268 billion in revenue—equivalent to 16.8% of GDP—when revenue mobilisation for 2025 is projected to close at just 11% of GDP.
“To move from 11 percent to 16.8 percent is essentially a six-percent jump. That cannot be realistic,” he insisted.
He noted that the removal of the COVID-19 levy, which contributed about GH₵3.7 billion annually—and GH₵2 billion as of Q3 2025—will further widen the revenue gap.
He argued that current tax handles underperformed in 2025, compliance efforts have not yielded expected gains, and no major tax rationalisation is planned. Dr Abdul-Kabiru warned that unless government introduces a supplementary budget to either raise taxes or cut expenditure, the 2026 revenue target will be missed.
“If the revenue does not perform, the expenditure will not perform. There is no clear assurance on where government expects to get the extra revenue,” he added.
Compliance Measures “Not Enough”
The Walewale legislator recalled that similar promises on compliance were made in previous budgets, including mid-year proposals to tighten ports administration, but results remain limited.
“He said he would even move his office to the port, yet revenue targets were still missed,” he emphasised. “Now he is giving the same assurances.”
According to him, two outcomes are likely by mid-2026:
- Government will revise the targets downward, or
- New taxes will be introduced to boost revenue.
Expenditure Allocations Criticised for Repetition of Unmet Promises
Dr Abdul-Kabiru also questioned the credibility of several flagship expenditure commitments, noting that government has a recurring pattern of announcing ambitious allocations that remain undelivered.
He cited examples from previous years, including allocations of GH₵100 million each to various programmes—such as the YouStart programme, the Teacher-Trainee support initiative, and the fight against illegal mining—which were not fulfilled in 2025.
“Allocations always look good on paper, but in execution, government consistently fails to deliver,” he stressed.
He extended the criticism to municipal-level allocations, pointing out that even a modest allocation of GH₵100 million for assemblymen payments has seen only three months paid, with nine months still outstanding.
Doubts Over CAPEX Execution Despite Increased Allocation
On capital expenditure, Dr Abdul-Kabiru argued that government’s performance in 2025 contradicts its ambitious plans for 2026.
He noted that of the GH₵13 billion allocated to CAPEX in 2025, only GH₵7 billion was spent, with hopes of reaching GH₵10 billion by year-end. Against this backdrop, he questioned the feasibility of delivering GH₵30 billion in CAPEX for 2026.
“How do you miss half of your CAPEX target this year and then promise more than double for next year?” he queried.
He also referenced government’s total infrastructure financing plan of GH₵76 billion (including grants and loans), describing it as inconsistent with historical execution patterns.
“Government Knows the Map but Not the Pocket”
Dr Abdul-Kabiru concluded that government’s spending priorities appear skewed toward consumption rather than productivity-enhancing investments.
“The government knows where the map is, but it doesn’t know where the pocket is,” he said. “Compensation and wages have increased, but capital expenditure has decreased.”
He warned that without significant improvements in revenue mobilisation, budget discipline and execution efficiency, the 2026 targets risk becoming yet another set of unfulfilled promises.
