Fuel prices to remain stable in the second-pricing window of April – IES predicts
Energy policy think tank, Institute for Energy Security (IES), is projecting stable fuel prices at the pumps within the second-pricing window of the month of April.
The stability in fuel prices, the IES notes, will be occasioned by the 1.5% depreciation of the local currency which will be moderated by the 1.06%, 3.65% and 3.72% fall in the prices of gasoline, gasoil and Liquified Petroleum Gas (LPG) respectively.
“For the remainder of April 2022, with the 1.5%-cedi depreciation against the Dollar, 1.06% fall in Gasoline price, 3.65% fall in Gasoil price, and 3.72% fall in the price of LPG per metric tonne, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) projects relative stability in the price of fuel on the local market,” IES said.
In the first pricing window, fuel prices at the various pumps across the country experienced marginal reductions.
These were occasioned by the changes in the market variables and government’s announced intervention beginning from the month.
Gasoline (petrol) sold beyond Gh¢9.20 per litre whereas Gasoil (diesel) sold above Gh¢10.20 per litre at most Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs).
The current national average price for gasoline is pegged at Gh¢9.39 per litre and Gh¢10.33 per litre for Gasoil.
This is a reduction of 4.37% on the previous average price of Gh¢9.80 per liter for Gasoline and a 3.46% reduction from the previous Gasoil average price of Gh¢10.70 per litre.
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For this window, the IES Market scan picked Goodness Oil, Benab Oil, Amser, and Zen Petroleum as the OMCs with the least-priced fuel on the local market.
Petrosol, Puma, Sel, Allied, Shell/Vivo, and Total sold the highest-priced fuel on the market within the window.
Reade details of report below:
World Oil Market
The International Benchmark, Brent Crude price stayed mostly below the $110 per barrel mark, closing the window below the $100 per barrel. For the window under assessment, prices reached an average of $104.98 per barrel, representing a 3.03% reduction over the previous window’s average price of $108.27 per barrel.
Source: IES, with data from Oilprice.
Indications are emerging that the volatility of the oil market is beginning to subside eight weeks after Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine. Oil prices initially spiked to close to $140 per barrel but have since seen a decline with prices reaching $95 per barrel in the last window.
Due to China’s lockdowns, local Asian refiners have been forced to cut run durations and boost refined product exports, as means of alleviating the regional product market restriction.
In terms of crude oil imports, China remains the world’s top oil importer.
A close monitoring of the developments in China, where officials have declared COVID-19 to be a “zero tolerance” policy, Shanghai, home to 26 million people continue to see restrictions placed on their movement, causing a major global oil demand decline, and influencing the reduction in prices of oil experienced.
Brent oil prices fell below $100 per barrel on Monday, April 11th, as traders concluded that the world’s supply was sufficient despite imminent sanctions against Russian oil exports.
World Fuel Market
Prices of finished products monitored on Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Platts platform, saw a reduction in the just ended window. Gasoline price fell marginally by 1.06%, from its initial price of $1060.23 per metric tonne to the end date price of $1049.02 per metric tonne. Additionally, the price of Gasoil fell by 3.65%, reaching $1092.55 per metric tonne from a prior price of $1133.95 per metric tonne. LPG’s price closed the window at $872.48 per metric tonne from an earlier price of $906.18 per metric tonne on the international fuel market, falling by 3.72%.
Local Forex
Data analyzed by the IES Economic Desk within the window reveals that the Cedi further depreciated against major trading currencies on the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. The Cedi depreciated further by 1.44% to close at Gh¢7.79 to the Dollar from the earlier window’s rate of Gh¢7.68 to the Dollar.
IES PROJECTIONS FOR APRIL 2022 SECOND PRICING-WINDOW
For the remainder of April 2022, with the 1.5%-cedi depreciation against the Dollar, 1.06% fall in Gasoline price, 3.65% fall in Gasoil price, and 3.72% fall in the price of LPG per metric tonne, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) projects relative stability in the price of fuel on the local market.
Signed:
Fritz Moses
Research Analyst, IES
