Ghana: AfDB forecasts 5.3%, 5.1% GDP growth rate in 2022 and 2023
The African Development Bank Group (AfDB) has projected for Ghana, GDP growth rates of 5.3% and 5.1% for the year 2022 and 2023 respectively.
For the year 2022, the Bank’s projected growth rate of 5.3% is less than the government’s projected growth rate of 5.8% for this year.
The projected growth rates according to the AfDB, will be supported by government’s COVID-19 Alleviation and Revitalization of Enterprises Support (Ghana CARES) Programme.
Regarding the country’s fiscal deficit, the AfDB asserts fiscal deficit will narrow from the current 15% to 12.8% of GDP in 2022 and further down to 10.3% in 2023 spurred by revenue-enhancing reforms.
On a cash basis, provisional data for the first quarter of 2022, indicates an overall broad fiscal deficit (cash, excluding energy sector payments, financial sector clean-up costs) of 2.6 percent of GDP, against the programmed target of 2.3 percent of GDP.
The corresponding primary balance for the period was a deficit of GH¢2.3 billion (0.5 percent of GDP), against a deficit target of GH¢1.4 billion (0.3 percent of GDP).
Total revenue and grants mobilised by government within the first quarter of 2022 amounted to GHS 16.7bn (3.3% of GDP).
This is below the projected total revenue and grants target of GHS 19.3bn (3.8% of GDP) for the quarter.
The miss in government’s revenue for the quarter can be partly attributed to its inability to meet auction targets in the 91, 182 and 364 days treasury bills.
Government total expenditure within the quarter, also amounted to GHS 27bn (5.4% of GDP).
This is some GHS 3.5bn less the programmed expenditure target of GHS 30.5bn (6.1% of GDP).
The reduction in government expenditure maybe due to the fiscal consolidation measures such as the 30% cut in the budgets of MMDAs and salaries of government officials carried out within the first quarter of this year.
Meanwhile, the stock of public debt increased to 78.0 percent of GDP (GH¢391.9 billion) at the end of March 2022, compared with 76.6 percent of GDP (GH¢351.8 billion) at the end of December 2021.
Of the total debt stock, domestic debt was GH¢189.9 billion (37.8 percent of GDP), while the external debt was GH¢201.9 billion (40.2 percent of GDP).
