Gold prices gained on Wednesday in the run-up to the Federal Reserve’s latest policy decision, with markets expecting the US central bank to keep interest rates unchanged following signs of slowing inflation.
Spot gold rose 0.7% to $1,958.67 per ounce by 11:30 a.m. EDT, recovering its losses from the previous session. US gold futures were up 0.6% at $1,971.30 per ounce in New York.
Meanwhile, the US dollar hovered around multi-week lows, making greenback-priced bullion more appealing to overseas buyers, after softer US consumer inflation data cemented bets for a pause in the Fed’s tightening cycle.
Treasury yields also dipped after the data showed US producer prices logged their smallest annual increase in nearly two and a half years.
Inflation, as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, is still more than double the central bank’s 2% target. Traders see more than a 95% chance of a pause in the rate hikes on Wednesday but a nearly 60% probability of an increase at the meeting in July, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
“If we do get a pause and then the market gets a relief rally after that … I’m probably going to remove some positions because (Fed Chair) Jerome Powell will come out with some hawkish rhetoric,” Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures in Chicago, told Reuters.
Fed policymakers may well signal more rate increases once they take time to assess the economy, the financial system, and whether inflation continues to fall.
“The outlook is that we are close to the peak (for Fed rate hikes) and that will reduce the attractiveness of the dollar a little,” added Peter Fertig of Quantitative Commodity Research.
Traders also are awaiting the release of weekly US jobless claims numbers on Thursday and speeches by two Fed officials on Friday.
