Goldman Sachs Projects Solid Global Economic Growth for 2025; US Outpaces Peers
Goldman Sachs Research has forecasted another year of robust global economic growth in 2025, with the United States expected to surpass expectations while the eurozone faces slower growth due to potential tariff pressures.
The investment bank projects global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth at 2.7% on an annual average basis, aligning with 2024’s estimated expansion and slightly exceeding Bloomberg’s consensus forecast.
US Growth to Lead Advanced Economies
The US, the world’s largest economy, is anticipated to grow by 2.5% in 2025, outperforming the consensus estimate of 1.9%. This would mark the third consecutive year of the US outpacing other advanced economies.
“Global labor markets have rebalanced,” noted Jan Hatzius, Chief Economist at Goldman Sachs, in the firm’s report titled “Macro Outlook 2025: Tailwinds (Probably) Trump Tariffs.”
Hatzius highlighted declining inflation nearing central bank targets and the normalization of interest rates as key drivers of economic stability.
The US economy’s momentum is linked to policy shifts under President Donald Trump’s second term, including higher tariffs on imports from China and automobiles, reduced immigration, tax cuts, and regulatory rollbacks.
However, Hatzius warned of risks: “The biggest risk is a large across-the-board tariff, which would likely hit growth hard.”
Euro Area and China to Experience Slower Growth
While the euro area is projected to grow by only 0.8%—below the consensus of 1.2%—China is expected to expand at a 4.0% pace, reflecting tempered but steady growth.
Meanwhile, India is set to lead major economies with a strong 6.7% GDP growth rate.
The eurozone’s subdued growth outlook is attributed to tariff pressures and slower economic reforms, whereas China’s trajectory reflects a more cautious economic rebalancing.
