Government on Course to Exceed 2025 Macroeconomic Targets
Ghana’s economy is on track to post better-than-targeted outcomes across all macroeconomic indicators in 2025, driven by strong first-half performances, according to IC Research.
The economic and financial analysis firm said gains in inflation, exchange rate stability, interest rates, first-quarter GDP growth, and gross international reserves have bolstered prospects for achieving end-year targets.
In its assessment of the 2025 Mid-Year Review Budget, IC Research noted that budget execution in the first six months of the year delivered “a sizable fiscal adjustment” that outperformed both the authorities’ target and its own estimates.
“Our review of the fiscal data indicates renewed commitment to spending controls and non-accumulation of arrears amid a largely satisfactory tax revenue outturn, despite underperformance in non-tax revenue. Against the backdrop of better-than-expected fiscal outturn, the authorities appear strongly optimistic about achieving the end-2025 macro-fiscal targets as all the year-end targets were retained,” it stated.
It added that the strong first-half delivery had eased post-2024 concerns over the near-term fiscal outlook, though risks to budget execution remain. The fiscal authorities, it said, have identified key threats to budget performance and outlined credible mitigation measures.
Total revenue and grants for the first half of 2025 reached GH¢99.3 billion, equivalent to 7.1% of GDP, falling short of the target by 3.2% but exceeding IC Research’s projection by 8.3% due to intensified tax compliance efforts.
Non-tax revenue underperformed significantly, coming in at GH¢10.2 billion — GH¢2.4 billion (19.1%) below target — mainly due to weaker collections by state agencies. Customs revenue also fell short, recording GH¢10.96 billion against a target of GH¢12.56 billion, a 12.7% shortfall, which IC Research attributed to systemic revenue leakages at Tema Port and smuggling across land borders.
The Energy Sector Levy Act (ESLA), however, is expected to be a strong revenue driver in the second half of the year. Authorities have flagged customs as a potential drag on fiscal performance and have pledged measures to plug revenue leakages.
