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Headline Inflation Expected to Ease to 19% in September – IC Research Predicts

1 year ago
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A customer counts Ghana cedi banknotes at the Nima market in Accra, Ghana on Monday, March 11, 2024

A customer counts Ghana cedi banknotes at the Nima market in Accra, Ghana on Monday, March 11, 2024

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Headline Inflation Expected to Ease to 19% in September – IC Research Predicts

Inflation in Ghana is forecast to decline to 19.0% year-on-year in September 2024, according to a report by IC Research.

This would mark a continuation of the country’s disinflationary trend, following a surprise drop to 20.4% in August, the lowest level since March 2022.

The market had anticipated a rise to 22.8% in August, but the actual figure came in significantly below expectations.

However, IC Research predicts a month-on-month inflation increase to 0.7% for September, following a 0.7% decline in August, driven largely by a 2.2% deflation in food prices.

“Our main surprise relates to the month-on-month contraction in the CPI level, which we historically expected to occur in September,” the report stated, citing shifting seasonal patterns and a year-on-year deflation in several food categories as key factors behind the unexpected drop.

This marks the fifth consecutive month of easing inflation, a trend supported by lower energy prices, improved foreign exchange stability, and strong agricultural output.

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IC Research remains cautiously optimistic about continued disinflation but warned that potential food price shocks and demand pressures related to upcoming elections could present risks to this outlook.

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