IES Anticipates Major Reduction in Fuel Prices in March’s Second Pricing Window
The Institute for Energy Security (IES) has projected a significant drop in local pump prices for all petroleum products in the second pricing window of March 2025. According to the IES, gasoline prices are expected to decline by 4.5%, gasoil by 3.2%, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 4.5%.
The anticipated reduction in local pump prices is attributed to substantial declines in global fuel market prices recorded across all three key petroleum products during the first pricing window of March 2025. Data monitored by the IES indicate that international market prices for gasoline fell by 9.00%, gasoil dropped by 6.33%, and LPG saw an 8.98% reduction.
Additionally, the Ghanaian cedi experienced a slower depreciation rate of 0.19% against the U.S. dollar—the lowest rate of decline since the beginning of the year. The downward trend in fuel prices has largely been driven by the collapse of crude oil prices on the global market. The IES suggests that to sustain this price reduction, the government should consider building strategic fuel reserves while prices remain low.
Local Fuel Market Performance
The first pricing window of March 2025 saw relative price stability in the local fuel market, following a general decline in petroleum product prices in late February. Most Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) maintained their per-litre prices for both gasoline and gasoil. However, three OMCs reviewed their prices downward, leading to a cumulative average reduction of approximately GH₵0.10 for both products.
Using a purposive price sampling approach, the IES computed national average prices for the period under review. Gasoline and gasoil were sold at GH₵15.45 and GH₵15.50 per litre, respectively, reflecting the price levels from the previous window. Meanwhile, LPG prices remained stable at GH₵18.79 per kilogram.
Global Fuel Market Trends
Data from Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Platts for the first pricing window of March 2025, which closed on March 11, 2025, showed a consistent decline in refined petroleum product prices. At the close of the pricing window:
- Gasoline prices fell from $709.66 per metric tonne to $645.81, representing a 9.00% decline.
- Gasoil prices dropped from $720.16 per metric tonne to $674.56, marking a 6.33% decrease.
- LPG prices declined from $609.34 per metric tonne to $554.64, reflecting an 8.98% reduction.
With these developments, consumers can expect some relief at the pump in the coming days as OMCs adjust prices downward in line with market trends.
