IES Predicts 2-5% Decline in Petroleum Prices as Cedi Depreciation Slows
The Institute for Energy Security (IES) anticipates a decline in fuel prices of between 2% and 5% over the next fortnight, providing some relief to Ghanaian consumers.
The reduction in ex-pump prices is attributed to both favorable conditions in the international petroleum market and a slower depreciation of the cedi.
Global market trends indicate notable drops in refined product prices, with gasoline falling by 10.62%, gasoil by 6.09%, and LPG by 2.40%.
Meanwhile, the Ghanaian cedi has exhibited relative stability, with its depreciation against the U.S. dollar slowing to just 0.09% during the first pricing window of September.
These factors combined suggest an imminent reduction in fuel costs at the pump, a welcome development for an economy grappling with inflationary pressures and high energy costs.
“Given the gains realized in the foreign fuel market and the slower depreciation of the local currency, consumers are expected to see fuel prices fall at the pumps in the coming days. Specifically, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) projects all petroleum prices to decrease by between 2% and 5% in the next two weeks of September 2024,” the IES noted.
Local Fuel Market Performance
According to the IES, the first pricing window of September 2024 saw leading Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) reduce the price of liquid fuels in the local fuel market.
The price per litre of gasoline and gasoil was lowered by an average of GH₵0.25 for gasoline and GH₵0.30 for gasoil, based on price data compiled from OMCs operating in the local fuels market.
The Institute for Energy Security’s (IES) computation of the national average price for the three refined petroleum products during the first pricing window of September 2024 shows that gasoline and gasoil were sold at GH₵13.65 and GH₵14.10 per litre, respectively, while LPG was priced at GH₵15.10 per kilogram (kg).
The IES Marketscan identifies Star Oil, Zen Petroleum, and Benab Oil as the OMCs offering the lowest prices over the last two weeks.
World Fuel Market
Monitoring of the global Standard & Poor’s (S&P) Platts data on petroleum products’ performance in the world fuel market shows that the prices of Gasoline and Gasoil continued to decline in the first pricing-window of September 2024.
LPG on the contrast had its price increase during the same period. Published data for the first pricing-window of September 2024 shows Gasoline closed at $696.38 per metric tonne, Gasoil at $669.38 per metric tonne, and LPG at $546.50 per metric tonne.
The net changes indicate all petroleum products fell: LPG by 2.40% Gasoline and Gasoil by 10.62% and 6.09%, respectively.
