AfDB Forecasts Ghana’s Debt-to-GDP Ratio to Decline Below 60% by End-2025
Ghana’s public debt burden is expected to ease marginally by the end of 2025, with the debt-to-Gross Domestic Product (GDP) ratio projected to fall just below 60%, according to the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) 2025 Economic Outlook.
The forecast marks a slight improvement from the estimated 61.8% debt-to-GDP ratio recorded in 2024, reflecting modest fiscal consolidation amid efforts to stabilise the country’s macroeconomic framework.
Data from the Bank of Ghana corroborates the declining trend, with the central bank’s May 2025 Summary of Economic and Financial Data putting the debt-to-GDP ratio at 55%—higher than the 53.7% and 54.9% reported in January and February respectively. Ghana’s total public debt stood at GH¢769.4 billion (approximately US$49.5 billion).
The AfDB’s continent-wide analysis reveals that 15 of Africa’s 54 economies have seen their debt levels drop below pre-COVID-19 pandemic thresholds. This trend is largely attributed to aggressive fiscal consolidation strategies implemented to free up budgetary space for investment in infrastructure, health, and education.
Angola led the continent with a 42.1 percentage point decline in its debt-to-GDP ratio in 2024, followed closely by São Tomé and Príncipe, which recorded a 40-point reduction.
Debt Risks Remain Despite Systemic Crisis Avoidance
The AfDB noted that while the continent has so far averted a systemic debt crisis, vulnerabilities persist. “Africa has broadly escaped a systemic debt crisis with the containment of growth in public debt,” the Bank stated, adding that risk exposure remains heightened due to a combination of structural and external pressures.
Key concerns include the impact of elevated global interest rates, under which many African countries—Ghana included—contracted commercial debt, as well as sharp currency depreciations that continue to inflate debt servicing costs.
“Even with the measures taken to contain public expenditure, the primary deficit remains an important driver of debt, followed by interest payments and low GDP growth,” the AfDB cautioned.
For Ghana, analysts suggest that sustained fiscal discipline, revenue mobilisation, and prudent debt management will be crucial in maintaining the downward trajectory in public debt and in shoring up investor confidence as the country navigates post-restructuring economic recovery.
