Iron ore profits to drop by a third as miners eye China demand
Rio Tinto is the first of the global iron ore majors expected to report lower half-year earnings from this week, as supply chains normalize after Covid-19 and attention turns to how suppliers to China’s steelmaking industry see customer demand.
The world’s biggest iron ore producer is expected report its lowest half year earnings and dividend in three years on Wednesday, mostly on the back of a 15% fall in received iron ore prices over the period.
Iron ore accounts for about 70% of Rio’s earnings. A Visible Alpha consensus expects Rio to log profits of $5.85 billion and dividends of 185 US cents, 32% lower than last year’s $8.63 billion and 267 US cents.
Iron ore prices have recovered this quarter to the highest in four months on hopes of targeted stimulus for China’s property sector.
China’s top leaders pledged on Monday to step up policy support for the economy amid a tortuous post-Covid recovery, focusing on boosting domestic demand, signalling more stimulus steps.
“The China reopening trade is coming towards an end,” said analyst Kaan Peker of RBC in Sydney. “We don’t think there is going to be large stimulus.”
Rio warned of the risk to global growth when it reported its quarterly production last week.
The world’s biggest listed miner, BHP Group, reports on Aug. 2, when it is expected to log a 35% fall in underlying profit for the half to $7.45 billion from $11.6 billion for the second half of the 2021-2022 financial year.
Fortescue sets out its quarterly production results on Friday and its financial results on Aug. 27. Vale, the world’s second biggest iron ore miner, reports its financial results July 27 after sales lagged output during the quarter.
